A Senior Visiting Fellow to The German Marshall Fund of the United States assesses the drivers of Von der Leyen’s tough China speech, Macron’s plans for a "re-risking" pact with Xi Jinping & the behind-the-scenes push to overhaul global export controls policy. Beijing's tactics paying off? This seems huge, if true: French officials close to Macron have indicated that he is considering offering Xi a deal along the lines of this: France will resist US pressure to decouple from China if Beijing invests diplomatic capital in bringing about peace in Ukraine."

Quote:Watching China in Europe - April 2023

Welcome to Watching China in Europe, a monthly update from GMF’s Indo-Pacific Program. Now more than ever, the transatlantic partners need clarity and cohesion when it comes to China policy. In this monthly newsletter, Noah Barkin, a senior visiting fellow at GMF and managing editor at Rhodium Group, provides his personal observations and analysis on the most pressing China-related developments and activities throughout Europe.

Europe was powered for decades by a Franco-German engine. But lately, the bloc seems to move forward despite, not because of, Berlin and Paris. This has been the case with the war in Ukraine, where eastern European countries have done much of the leading, with a helping hand from the United States, while the Germans tie themselves into knots over weapons deliveries, and the French lament the death of strategic autonomy in real time. It has also been true for China policy. The German government is deeply divided on relations with Beijing, has yet to unveil its new China strategy, and is struggling to deliver on its promise to nudge Europe toward a more united stance. France, meanwhile, seems primarily concerned with distancing itself from Washington. Ahead of President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Beijing this week, a French official told me: “We have no intention of joining a US campaign to isolate China. We want to create a shared future with them.”

Enter European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, whose China speech last Thursday was a bold attempt to fill the leadership gap on one of Europe’s most acute foreign policy challenges. Like the 2019 strategy paper from her predecessor Jean-Claude Juncker, which labeled China a “systemic rival”, von der Leyen’s speech was designed to cut through the thickening fog around Europe’s China policy and chart a clear path forward. Herding 27 member states will not be easy. Support from Berlin and Paris will be crucial but is far from guaranteed.

Von der Leyen has put forward an agenda that will define the China debate in Europe this year and force capitals to respond. As a former German defense minister whom Macron nominated for the Commission presidency and whose father once ran the state that Volkswagen calls home, she is uniquely placed to sell a tougher line to key European capitals. No national leader could ever give a China speech as frank as the one she gave. “One thing is clear. She is taking risks, leaning out the window, showing real leadership,” a senior EU diplomat said of the speech. Another senior EU official put it this way: “This speech was badly needed. What frightens me is the follow-up. She will need to get the big member states on board. If she does, then the smaller states will follow. But I would not underestimate the challenge.”

Losing Sight

The speech contained two main messages. The first is that Europe needs to stop deluding itself about China’s trajectory under President Xi Jinping. In unusually stark language for a leading European figure, von der Leyen spoke of Xi’s ambitions to turn China into “the world’s most powerful nation”, his support for Russian President Vladimir Putin in spite of his “atrocious and illegal” invasion of Ukraine, and Beijing’s readiness to weaponize its economic ties with other countries to “ensure that China gets what it wants”.

In recent months, von der Leyen’s team grew worried that leading European politicians and senior EU figures in Brussels were losing sight of the lessons from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Some appear to have convinced themselves that deeper engagement with China is the proper response. But if you are traveling to Beijing to try to convince Xi to use his influence on Putin, why muddy the waters by bringing a business delegation along or choosing to speak at a business forum? It has begun to look unseemly. At the same time, Chinese diplomats in Europe have been pressing for a revival of the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI), receiving positive signals from some European officials. “There was concern that if we didn’t point member states in a certain direction, there was a risk that we would be heading in the wrong direction,” one European Commission official told me. 

The second message from the speech is that Europe needs to get serious about the risks arising from its close economic relationship with China, particularly when it comes to the transfer of advanced technologies. The “de-risking” approach laid out by von der Leyen is an attempt to bridge what has begun to look like a widening transatlantic gap on technology engagement with China while charting a course distinct from Washington’s. “We’re sick of copy-pasting what the Americans are doing,” one EU official told me. The challenge the Commission faces is simple: powers to control exports and investments remain in the hands of the member states. Without their buy-in, Brussels can do little to overhaul policy. The hope is that capitals such as Berlin and Paris come around to the view that a more proactive and coordinated European approach is needed to avoid a repeat of the recent case in which the Netherlands, under pressure from Washington, introduced export controls on semiconductor manufacturing equipment. Those controls are just the beginning: New US controls on quantum computing are in the pipeline, as are restrictions on US outbound investments in China.

After Wassenaar

Paralysis in the Wassenaar Arrangement, the multilateral export control regime that counts Russia as a member, is another reason why the Europeans may be forced to reconsider their approach. Last week in Washington two meetings took place that could ultimately pave the way for important changes in the way the United States, Europe, and their allies coordinate controls on critical technologies to China. The first was a Multilateral Action on Sensitive Technologies (MAST) meeting hosted by the State Department, a Trump-era forum that met for the first time since Joe Biden took office. The second was an informal gathering of a newly created G7 working group on export controls. Among the discussion points, I was told, was a reconfiguration of the international system on export controls away from Wassenaar and toward a plurilateral grouping of like-minded countries. “Some countries are more enthusiastic than others,” one European official told me.

The absence of European Commission representatives at these meetings is a sign that EU member states remain wary of giving Brussels a bigger role on export controls. Resistance to an outbound investment regime, which von der Leyen also backed in her speech, is likely to be just as fierce. In the chancellery in Berlin, officials are uneasy with terms such as “economic security” and “de-risking” in relation to China. Still, they are finding it hard to avoid them. Japanese officials gave their German counterparts an earful during German-Japanese government consultations in mid-March. “It was China, China, and more China,” one diplomat told me. “It was a real eye-opener for those in the German government who have not been paying attention.” Von der Leyen and her team have understood that only by developing a European approach to economic security can the EU hope to sit down with close allies such as the United States and Japan and have a conversation at eye level. If European capitals keep their heads lodged firmly in the sand, by contrast, they will be forced to react on the fly to policy developments in Washington. If that is the path they choose, they shouldn’t go running to Brussels for help when the going gets tough.

Le Re-Risking

It is against this backdrop that Macron and von der Leyen are traveling to Beijing this week. The French president invited the head of the EU’s executive body to send a message of European unity akin to the one sent back in 2019, when he invited her predecessor, Juncker, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel to Paris for a meeting with Xi. But after von der Leyen’s address last week, the challenge of singing from the same song sheet has grown. She dismissed in her speech the idea that Xi could be counted on to play a constructive role in the Ukraine conflict and pushed for a de-risking of Europe’s economic relationship with China.

Paris sees it differently. French officials close to Macron have indicated in recent weeks that he is considering offering Xi a deal along the lines of this: France will resist US pressure to decouple from China if Beijing invests diplomatic capital in bringing about peace in Ukraine. To drive home the point, I was told that a large Airbus investment in China could be announced during Macron’s visit. This looks a lot like re-risking à la française. “Don’t mistake this for a good cop, bad cop act,” one German observer said of Macron and von der Leyen. “That would presume coordination on the messaging.”

Packed Spring

The Beijing trip will be the first test of whether von der Leyen’s economic security agenda can succeed, but it will be followed by a series of other meetings in the run-up to the summer that are likely to reveal much more. G7 leaders will meet in May in Hiroshima, with economic security high on the agenda. This will be followed by an EU-US Trade and Technology Council meeting at the end of that month in Sweden. The big test, however, is likely to come at a European Council meeting in June, when the Commission is expected to present the initial elements of an economic security strategy to member states. Building on this discussion, von der Leyen’s cabinet will work with the White House on an agenda for an EU-US summit that is tentatively scheduled for October. An EU-China summit will have to wait until after that, Commission officials say, despite a push from European Council President Charles Michel to hold it this spring.

In Germany, the China calendar is also about to get busy, with the country’s first National Security Strategy—“a sea of platitudes” in the words of one diplomat—likely to be published in late April or early May. German-Chinese government consultations may follow in late May or early June, and the government’s China strategy is likely to be presented in the months thereafter. I will also be keeping an eye on Chinese shipping giant COSCO’s pending acquisition of a stake in a terminal at the Hamburg port, which I am told is being held up in the German economy ministry and looks unlikely to be approved anytime soon. As early as July, the chancellery and German ministries will decide whether to phase Chinese suppliers out of the 5G network. I have been told by government officials that the mood in Berlin has shifted against Huawei. I will believe it when I see it.

Noah Barkin
Senior Visiting Fellow, Indo-Pacific Program
The German Marshall Fund of the United States

Some are Subtractive in nature. This is where a subject is missing or removed. Some are Additive in nature. This is where a subject is added to a situation when it previously was not there. Some are Substitutive in nature. This is where a subject is replaced with another subject. And some glitches are Rendering issues. This is where something is but is not the way it should be in a physical world, not the way it is intended to be. If you have, please tell me what happend, who was there, where it occurred, and how you felt about it. What let you know it was a glitch and not just a memory error in your mind.

Explanation: Casualty Lists: 1 KIA and yet his ghost lives on... Hear his moans and groans here!



Sydney Morning Herald What does an ex-soldier’s war crime charge mean for whistleblowers? Story by Amber Schultz • Sunday

Quote:McBride is facing a jury trial over the leaking of a cache of documents to the ABC shortly after his discharge from the ADF, which formed the basis of its 2017 “Afghan Files” investigation. The subsequent Brereton Report found credible evidence of war crimes committed by Australian special forces, with 39 murders, executions and allegations of torture.

McBride faces five charges relating to the unauthorised disclosure of information, theft of Commonwealth property and breaching the Defence Act, and could face up to 50 years in prison.

Quote:McBride was forced to drop his application for protection under whistleblower laws after the government moved to quash the testimony of two of his key experts on public-interest immunity laws.

Quote:McBride’s lawyer Mark Davis also said he saw no joy in seeing Schulz arrested.

“What occurred in Afghanistan was a result of the deliberate policy of commanders and the Canberra military bureaucracy to be blind to the actions of their soldiers in the field. It was an unparalleled dereliction of duty or avoidance of responsibility,” he said.

“[Schulz and McBride] are both facing prison. Where are the ministers facing prison [and] where are the generals facing prison? Both McBride and this man could feel that the responsibilities should lay at their feet.”

Quote:Father, into your hands I commend my spirit
Father, into your hands
Why have you forsaken me?
In your eyes forsaken me
In your thoughts forsaken me
In your heart forsaken me, oh
Trust in my self-righteous suicide
I cry when angels deserve to die

Quote:Personal life

Dreyfus lives in Malvern with his Chilean-born wife Deborah (née Chemke). The couple have three children, Joe, Tom and Laura.[36][37][38][39]

Dreyfus is a keen swimmer, cyclist and runner and is a frequent participant in open water swims and fun runs within his electorate.[40][41]

Dreyfus speaks fluent Spanish[39] and has stated that, had he not become a lawyer, he would have liked to become a park ranger in the Alpine National Park.[42]

He is a supporter of the St Kilda Football Club.[43]

Quote:Mira lo que me has hecho hacer, maldita idiota(feminine)

Mira lo que me has hecho hacer, maldito idiota(masculine)

Explanation: It is with a heavy heart that I post this message ...

Azrael is/was mine and my brothers official cat [snipped, microchipped & bought from pet store with papers costing about $600] for the past 20+yrs ...



She lived the life of a Princess with her every care and want supplied in full.

Personal Disclosure: She has been off both her food and drink and she has lost some control of her back legs and has since become immobile during the past few days now and tonight looks like it just might be her time to pass over!

She had and excellent run at life and I am glad to have known her and taken care of her.

I ask for your prayers for her new journey ok.

This is from 60 Minutes Australia and is speaking to a new life extension pill that is in clinical trials according to the video.. It worked in mice so there is expectation that it will work for humans; thus the human clinical trails. The inventor sold the company for big bucks and the research continues.

As long as life is good then I can see wanting to live longer, however there are those who are everyday offing themselves for whatever reason so the pill ain't for everyone...

All the talk about plants has got me antsy.
So, even though it is too early in my area to get them in the ground, I'm starting the 2023 gardening thread!

I started a bunch of seeds this year for my garden.  Many years, I just go buy the plants from our local gardening store, but I wanted to get in the habit of seed harvesting and starting.

On 3/20, I used Rapid rooter plugs from Amazon, as I have way better luck with these, then the little plugs in the mini greenhouse set up you can buy everywhere.
I put these in Styrofoam egg cartons.  I put the seeds in the little holes, water them really well, close them and put them on a seed heating pad and cover them with a towel.

Some plants, like tomatoes and kale, started within 2 days.  Pumpkins take 3.  
Generally, by the third day, I left them all open on the mats.
When the seedling gets big enough to see root through the plug, I put them in bigger containers.  I save all the ones from previous years.  
The veggies go into square ones, about 3x3 inches and my herbs/flower went into the 3 pack ones like plants come from at the nursery.  Thats all I had.
I have 2 square grow lights, about 12 x 12 and a new one that is just flexable arm lights I found this year, that are thin.
They all seem to be working well, I have the square ones hanging so I can adjust the height on them.  
It won't be until about mid may, before I can get them into the ground, as I am in MI, zone 5, and we have to worry about frost.
I wanted to post a pic, but my phone and email are not cooperating, as usual.

We also have Blueberry's, raspberry's, strawberry's and asparagus to put in, which I can do a little earlier, maybe this weekend.
We already have everything but the blueberry's, but we wanted to get bigger crops, and the asparagus just shows up wild, wherever it wants, so we want to put in an actual patch.  Easier to find I'm hoping.

I'm hoping people will join in this thread, with their own garden info this year, and with tips and tricks.  There is always so much to learn!
I also try to keep a journal, so I know how much I was able to harvest and can up the previous year.  Also good information like, 1 heaping 5 gal. pail of tomatoes gave me 10 quarts of juice.
On that note,
I've been fighting blight for years, so this year I am actually going to try copper sulfate fungicide this year.  I hoping if It works, I can get enough tomatoes that I can skip planting them this year.
I do that with corn and peas.  Last year, even though it was a bad year for corn, I got 63 pints, so I won't be growing it this year, it'll be peas.

I am also extending my herb garden, with more medicinal herbs this year as well.  Starting with the mullien, all heal, more yarrow, echinacea and some evening primrose.
I will be trying to keep up with this thread all season.

It's one of the many Shuttle UFO videos captured by Martyn Stubbs from NASA's feeds but of all of his videos STS 114 still has me scratching my head after all these years , I know many here will have seen it before but to my knowledge nobody , not even Jim Oberg , has a definitive answer to how an object can do a U-turn in space.

STS 114 launched in 2005 and the camera is looking toward the Earth.


Many Shuttle UFO's can be put down to thrusters effecting ice crystals that hang around the Shuttle and much of the time I agree with that but in my humble opinion 114 aint no ice crystal , so could it be the best evidence of a genuine UFO , or has someone shown it to be something more prosaic ?

So, I just heard about this, Saturday, and it sure seems like a new way to puppy mill dogs.

So, you want a designer dog, in this case, an Australian doodle.
You get one from a new breeder.
But, there is a catch:
If your getting a female, in this case you pay 1000.00.
You DO NOT own the dog yet.
You have to let said breeder breed the female for 4 litters.
You do not get any of the puppies.
THEN you own the dog.
If you do not agree, you have to give the dog back, but you don't get your money.
(Be sure to read any small print in the contract!)

What kind of crap is that?  Sounds like you are puppy milling the dog for the breeder to me.

Please let people know this is going on.  A friend's sister just got caught up in this.
Personally, no matter the sex of the dog we end up with, we always get them fixed.  And many legitimate breeders ask this of you.  (Hubby loves Boxers, so we have dealt with a few)
I didn't ask about who's responsibility it is, for the puppy healthcare, but I wish I would have.

Don't support designer dogs, or this nonsense!

Makes you wonder ?

As many of us not doubt know there is allot of fake news about the war. Everything from Rah Rah Ukraine is winning to they will be defeated in the next few days; somewhere in between there is the truth. We can post videos or articles we find interesting and let those who see or read them make their own decisions.

More information on the Russian blogger who was killed in the restaurant blast


Russian is such an ugly language IMO.. Like a Russian friend of mine once said, "No one can speak proper Russian unless you grew up in Russia!"