The Fallacy of Bugging Out – Are You Prepared to Be a Refugee?

[Infolurker]

One of my favorite articles on the subject. 

Are you prepared to leave everything in your life behind except what you can carry or truck away when you leave? Do you have a prepared place to go? If you do, I hope you have already stored the stuff you need there.

Is your plan just to "Head To The Hills"? If so, you will will probably die miserably unless again, you have a prepared place to go.

If you live in a place, say an apartment in a big city, then yes, you should pre-prepare to bug out to a more favorable location but again, prepare for it and have a place to go. 

The Fallacy of Bugging Out – Are You Prepared to Be a Refugee?

https://www.shtfplan.com/emergency-prepa...-a-refugee

[b]To The Woods[/b]
Bugging out is usually assumed to mean “to the woods” where survivors, patriots, militia, end-timers and others will be making “their last stand” (apparently together, whether they like it or not) while roasting hotdogs and marshmallows.  Instead, it will be the last man standing over a pile of rotted and half-eaten[i]corpses[/i], since the food and supplies and the notions of ‘living off the land’ will have died out with the last slaughtered deer to be found. And every ’survivor’ will have been hoping all along that nobody has turned them in for poaching.

Campsites, caves and hidey-holes will have become armed, dirty and infested encampments of hungry and desperate men (the surviving women would have long since been forced into prostitution and slavery), all fighting over the remaining scraps to be found (and newcomers showing up) necessary for their survival. Informants, traitors, thieves, murderers, rapists and thugs will quickly become the defining characteristic, with the strongest ruling (or eating) the weak.  Those who arrive “first” will potentially be better prepared to prey upon the late-comers or the weak, so if you are still planning on trying this, get your seat at the table [i]early[/i].

Think not? This is exactly what happens during civil wars and internal conflicts when a country turns against itself. The war in Bosnia saw tens of thousands of murders, rapes and thefts as the people turned on each other.  It was a fight for survival, for food, for weapons, for money, for women.

It has happened all over the world, and it will happen again. Whenever there is not enough to go around, and whenever there is strife, secrecy and conflict, those involved will resort to whatever methods of survival that they have to in order that they might live another day by whatever means possible.  It will be no picnic, no romantic “retreat into the woods” where faith, truth, righteousness or rebellion will flourish and grow. Instead, it will be a bloodbath where the young, old and the weak succumb the quickest.  

I suggest you bring lots of Tabasco sauce, as it does make the meat taste better.

Bugging out also means you are leaving the norms of society behind. These are the rules, laws, restrictions and expectations that you have come to expect (and largely appreciate) that govern human behavior. Would-be dictators and gang leaders will spring forth from unlikely sources. Since there is nothing to hinder them, then they will allow themselves to be unhindered. Unrestrained, you will find the true nature of what your “friends” can really be.  You’ll soon regret not locking up the mad caps among you and taking away their weapons.  

If food or medical supplies are in short supply, then expect gang on gang, tribe on tribe warfare to begin.  Expect slavery, torture, imprisonment and rape.  Also expect the nearby communities (cities, towns, villages) to become their prey, as theft, robbery and murder to go hand in hand with their (daily) need for food and other things like fuel and medical supplies.

Inversely, you could also expect smart and prepared communities to expel, exterminate and hunt down these refugees if things get way out of hand, exacerbating an already bad situation. Forget for a moment the military or law enforcement going after these woodland refugees (a topic unto itself), the locals themselves will not be the helping hand that you may have naively come to expect, especially if you or your gang have already trod upon their welcome mat.  

They’re trying to survive too, and live normal, unfettered lives as best they can. They don’t need nor appreciate you coming along and messing things up. Camping out in their back yard or nearby forests will often pit you against them in violent and lethal ways. And they will be far more adept then you are outlasting you because they will have the infrastructure and support network to do so.

Survivalism is only rarely about ’surviving in the woods’. Rather, survivalism is about [i]living[/i], and staying alive, and how you might do that while experiencing as few hardships as you can. Bugging out to the woods to survive your end-time fantasies is going to be a quick path to death for the majority of people that try this route. There is a better alternative to this.

Related Video Well Worth The Time To Watch It

NEW! SHTF - The Best PREPPER Plan Ever !!

[NightskyeB4Dawn]

Even in a SHTF scenario, there can be a lot of reasons why you may have to leave your location in much haste. So a to go bag, and a plan B, should always be your fall back options.

[Infolurker]

Even in a SHTF scenario, there can be a lot of reasons why you may have to leave your location in much haste. So a to go bag, and a plan B, should always be your fall back options.

True, just don't make it your Plan A.

You have no idea how many people believe they are just going to take their family out in the woods and be deer hunters... LOL

[NightskyeB4Dawn]

Even in a SHTF scenario, there can be a lot of reasons why you may have to leave your location in much haste. So a to go bag, and a plan B, should always be your fall back options.

True, just don't make it your Plan A.

You have no idea how many people believe they are just going to take their family out in the woods and be deer hunters... LOL

Well a little advice from a woodlander, woodland folk usually all carry guns. They are very cautious, and are extremely territorial.  

Unless the woods are in a State park, they are most likely privately own. In a SHTF scenario, shoot first, ask questions later, will most likely be the rule of the day. 

Now the government has its own rules about who owns what in a SHTF scenario, so don’t be surprised if it takes the stance that it owns everything.

Everything you “think” is yours. Your land, your stores, even you. For the good of the many you know.

[Infolurker]

Even in a SHTF scenario, there can be a lot of reasons why you may have to leave your location in much haste. So a to go bag, and a plan B, should always be your fall back options.

True, just don't make it your Plan A.

You have no idea how many people believe they are just going to take their family out in the woods and be deer hunters... LOL

Well a little advice from a woodlander, woodland folk usually all carry guns. They are very cautious, and are extremely territorial.  

Unless the woods are in a State park, they are most likely privately own. In a SHTF scenario, shoot first, ask questions later, will most likely be the rule of the day. 

Now the government has its own rules about who owns what in a SHTF scenario, so don’t be surprised if it takes the stance that it owns everything.

Everything you “think” is yours. Your land, your stores, even you. For the good of the many you know.

Oh, that reminds me, I got an old "golden horde" survival post I need to find over there before it is wiped. I am just going to find all the rest of my old survival posts and stick them here.

Important Things You Need When Hunkering Down During SHTF


We have something called "Continuity Of Government" which superseded Civil Defense decades ago.

Most people seem to envision "Madmax" which believe it or not is the least likely scenario.

If the Government cannot keep control, they will bunker up and centralize assets and allow chaos for 3-18 months (one good winter kill). Once the chaos has subsided, those assets will be utilized to restore order and the government.

Plan on a survival plan to last 18 months at least.

A few things to add:

A 275 gallon tote filled with water is a nice to have in your garage or basement.

A few multi packs of Bic lighters is nice to have.

A couple layers of Christmas wrapping paper or garbage bags blacks out windows quite well.

Never, ever get on the FEMA bus.

Concealment is better than fortification. Nobody is coming for your stuff if nobody thinks anything is there. (If possible)

Hypothetically, anyone trying to take your stuff or force you off your property may be a deadly threat to you and your family regardless of the gang tat, badge, or uniform the people may be wearing.

If you are surprised by someone knocking on your door, you have a very bad security plan.

Night vision is your friend if you can afford it.

Like Food and Ammo, you can never have too much duct tape.

Water purification (already mentioned) is crucial. (sawyer, lifestraw, alexapure pro, big berkey) Buy a couple of these options now.

Again, Never, ever, ever get on the FEMA bus.

[Ninurta]

I have a go-bag packed and standing in the corner to be grabbed on my way out. Folks used to call them "bug out bags", but mine isn't for bugging out, it for falling back to a secondary position. The purpose of that is not to "live in the woods" - I already do that - it's to have a fall back position to regrroup, reorganized, and counter attack from.

I've seen plenty of refugees in my day, hence the advice I always give to "never become a refugee".

Bugging out IS becoming a refugee.

.

[kdog]

Our suv is always packed with all our camping gear. We live sort of on the outskirts of town, so in just a few miles we are in the wilderness. 

But, our plan is to bug in as long as possible. If we need to go, it would take 15 minutes to load the rest of our supplies and go. 

It would probably be smart to keep our vehicle full with gas, but kind of lazy about that since everything we need is just a few minutes from us and use about half a tank of gas each month.

[Chiefsmom]

I've always figured I would stay put.  I can see it, like you said, living in a city or whathaveyou.

But, much to my husband's embarrassment, I've actually discussed disaster plans with our neighbors.  We all have a neighborhood plan.

Mostly farmers.  We had a good laugh last year, when we discussed the new neighbor moving in down the road.  Turns out his father owned the gun store in town.  (we had started judging neighbors by what they brought to the plan.)  Good addition!  LOL

[TheRedneck]

Survival includes a lot more than just "bugging out." That's a myth perpetrated by those who sell bug-out bags (and the things that go in them). It's literally a billion-dollar industry. Those profiting from that industry are not in the least concerned about someone's survival; they only care about the money.

A person needs 3 things to survive without civilization: shelter, water, and food... in that order. As a rule of thumb, one has at most three hours to find shelter, three days to find clean water, and three weeks to find food. Those are maximums for someone perfectly healthy... anything less than perfectly healthy decreases those times. Of all of them, shelter is the hardest to find and the one thing that can't be stored in a bug-out bag. You can get a tent perhaps, but it will be so lightweight that it will not last long or offer much in the way of security. The optimal solution is to know how to build and place a shelter from materials around you. That way, you aren't wasting energy carrying around something that will only be useful temporarily.

When and if someone has to bug out, it will likely not happen the way they have rehearsed it anyway. Everyone has this mental picture of what they will do when that time comes, and every one is wrong. If the country does collapse, for example, it will not, as has been said, be a "Mad Max" type scenario. Crime will increase, and martial law may be imposed if it gets too bad, but the cities will not dissolve into roving gangs. It will be more of every man for himself. People will be shoplifting, some will brazenly rob, houses will be broken into and pantries raided while the house is empty, and those who can will be running scams. The government will remain in place, although services we are used to might be cut or intermittent. In other words, don't expect the police to respond to your home when the powerful are being robbed as well. The Golden Rule will still apply: he who has the gold will make the rules. Those rules will include "me first."

Most will be better off staying put when such is possible. Think about it: everyone reading this knows their immediate surroundings. No one reading this knows an unfamiliar place as well. You know where everything is around you now, but sitting in the middle of the woods, you will not know if there's a creek nearby, if the water is safe to drink, what animals are near, where the nearest source of nutrition is, etc. But everyone knows where the local convenience store or food store is, where their food storage is located, the best places to hide, who should be there, etc., etc., etc.

Worse, someone moving on foot through a strange area, especially a strange remote area, is immediately seen as a target. We out in the sticks watch the news, too; we know when there's unrest. We're not as stupid as you think we are. We are usually armed, usually trained in the use of our weapons, and familiar with our place. You just became an intruder when intruders are expected and seen as a danger. Most will not survive long enough to get to wherever they wanted to go.

Those hills have eyes and ears. They see you and hear you, long before you think they do.

Ironically, the most brazen of the survivalists will be the first to perish. It is they who will, through their own actions and unfamiliarity with the locals, be seen as an imminent threat. Threats don't last very long out here. The ones who humble themselves and seek actual charity, who are willing to accept that their survival depends solely on the good will of those whose land they are invading, who recognize their inexperience and accept their limitations, will stand the greatest chance of surviving.

TheRedneck

[SomeJackleg]

When and if someone has to bug out, it will likely not happen the way they have rehearsed it anyway. Everyone has this mental picture of what they will do when that time comes, and every one is wrong. If the country does collapse, for example, it will not, as has been said, be a "Mad Max" type scenario. Crime will increase, and martial law may be imposed if it gets too bad, but the cities will not dissolve into roving gangs. It will be more of every man for himself. People will be shoplifting, some will brazenly rob, houses will be broken into and pantries raided while the house is empty, and those who can will be running scams. The government will remain in place, although services we are used to might be cut or intermittent. In other words, don't expect the police to respond to your home when the powerful are being robbed as well. The Golden Rule will still apply: he who has the gold will make the rules. Those rules will include "me first."

it's pretty much that way in many of the big million plus cities now hell it's even that way in lower population cities, and yes there are gangs roaming the streets and yes they do strike in packs with a shot calling gang leader.

your expecting it not to increase if pooh pooh gets deep. that's a very unrealistic view.

[quintessentone]

When and if someone has to bug out, it will likely not happen the way they have rehearsed it anyway. Everyone has this mental picture of what they will do when that time comes, and every one is wrong. If the country does collapse, for example, it will not, as has been said, be a "Mad Max" type scenario. Crime will increase, and martial law may be imposed if it gets too bad, but the cities will not dissolve into roving gangs. It will be more of every man for himself. People will be shoplifting, some will brazenly rob, houses will be broken into and pantries raided while the house is empty, and those who can will be running scams. The government will remain in place, although services we are used to might be cut or intermittent. In other words, don't expect the police to respond to your home when the powerful are being robbed as well. The Golden Rule will still apply: he who has the gold will make the rules. Those rules will include "me first."

it's pretty much that way in many of the big million plus cities now hell it's even that way in lower population cities, and yes there are gangs roaming the streets and yes they do strike in packs with a shot calling gang leader.

your expecting it not to increase if pooh pooh gets deep. that's a very unrealistic view.

I'm not so sure those gangs will have the upper hand. It will be them against everyone else who are most likely armed. I think it will come down to numbers and if neighbors get together within neighborhoods then the armed majority numbers rule.

[727Sky]

From what I have read it will start slower with underlying problems that finally when you wake up one day you will understand it is a real SHTF situation for you and many others. I still think it will be economic unless you are living along the southern borders of the USA and then IMO anything can happen to you or yours.

As people's money becomes worthless (you can not afford basics) flash mob robberies will become even more brazen than they are today. Out of the group of 30 to 60 kids there will be a few (gang members) that become even more emboldened to take whatever they want from whomever they see as a target. It got so bad in Argentina (2001) you could not stop or slow down at a light or stop sign without you and your car being attacked either for your contents, your gasoline, or your life as you were one of the few who could afford gas. No Problem you might be thinking as I can ride a bicycle... ahh nope that will be taken away from you just as your horse will be killed for food.  These are all worse case scenarios but it has happened before around the world so call it history.. and history can repeat.

Climate is also a really big deal if no electricity and you are baking or freezing to death.

I fall on the side of having a like minded good community of friends and neighbors and personally being armed even if it is with only a pistol as that weapon is a gateway to bigger and better arms..

Let us all hope we do not have to experience any of the really really dire consequences that many feel are just around the corner for civilization.

[NightskyeB4Dawn]

I've always figured I would stay put.  I can see it, like you said, living in a city or whathaveyou.

But, much to my husband's embarrassment, I've actually discussed disaster plans with our neighbors.  We all have a neighborhood plan.

Mostly farmers.  We had a good laugh last year, when we discussed the new neighbor moving in down the road.  Turns out his father owned the gun store in town.  (we had started judging neighbors by what they brought to the plan.)  Good addition!  LOL

It is wise to know your neighbors. And there are a lot of ways that the crap can hit the fan. Having a plan is common sense.

Nice to let your neighbors know that you have something valuable to bring to the table. 

I am an old broad but my hobby is fixing broken stuff, including people and animals. My neighbors take advantage of my skills during good times. I think they may feel I am worthy of a crust a bread and may keep me around.

[SomeJackleg]

I'm not so sure those gangs will have the upper hand. It will be them against everyone else who are most likely armed. I think it will come down to numbers and if neighbors get together within neighborhoods then the armed majority numbers rule.

i'm very sure they would have a very big upper hand. after all they are living on the fringes now, and have lots of ambush practice. there was a thing 15 years or so gangs were having members join the service to learn combat skills. of course the army and Corps deny it. some say it was a way for them to get out. either way, when shit gets deep, people are gonna fall back on what they know. plus i'm sure there are still some that do it today.

In 2008, according to FBI gang investigator Jennifer Simon, 1 to 2% of the U.S. military belonged to gangs, which is 50 to 100 times the rate in the general population.[1] According to the Federal Bureau of Investigation's 2011 National Gang Threat Assessment, the NGIC identified members of more than 53 gangs who served in the military.[2] U.S. gangs have sometimes encouraged their members to join the military in order to learn warfare techniques.[3]

The FBI’s 2007 report on gang membership in the military stated that the military's recruit screening process is ineffective, and allows gang members/extremists to enter the military. The report listed at least eight instances in the previous three years in which gang members obtained military weapons for their own

Gang presence in the United States military

very few soccer moms, dads know the operating end of a firearm, and are scared of them. all you have to do is look at the people that push for gun control who aren't part of the government or ngo's calling for it.

sure there are some regular folks that can fend them off, but the shitbirds of the world aren't going to target those kinda folks until all the easy pickins / sheeple are gone.  which i dare say is well over 2/3rds of the country.  they don't have the don't give a shit attitude about another human life.

[quintessentone]

I'm not so sure those gangs will have the upper hand. It will be them against everyone else who are most likely armed. I think it will come down to numbers and if neighbors get together within neighborhoods then the armed majority numbers rule.

i'm very sure they would have a very big upper hand. after all they are living on the fringes now, and have lots of ambush practice. there was a thing 15 years or so gangs were having members join the service to learn combat skills. of course the army and Corps deny it. some say it was a way for them to get out. either way, when shit gets deep, people are gonna fall back on what they know. plus i'm sure there are still some that do it today.

In 2008, according to FBI gang investigator Jennifer Simon, 1 to 2% of the U.S. military belonged to gangs, which is 50 to 100 times the rate in the general population.[1] According to the Federal Bureau of Investigation's 2011 National Gang Threat Assessment, the NGIC identified members of more than 53 gangs who served in the military.[2] U.S. gangs have sometimes encouraged their members to join the military in order to learn warfare techniques.[3]

The FBI’s 2007 report on gang membership in the military stated that the military's recruit screening process is ineffective, and allows gang members/extremists to enter the military. The report listed at least eight instances in the previous three years in which gang members obtained military weapons for their own

Gang presence in the United States military

very few soccer moms, dads know the operating end of a firearm, and are scared of them. all you have to do is look at the people that push for gun control who aren't part of the government or ngo's calling for it.

sure there are some regular folks that can fend them off, but the shitbirds of the world aren't going to target those kinda folks until all the easy pickins / sheeple are gone.  which i dare say is well over 2/3rds of the country.  they don't have the don't give a shit attitude about another human life.

Right, but that leaves 98% military in amongst regular people who can easily teach others which end of the gun needs to be pointed where. I think you would be surprised how resilient people are when it comes to survival and defense of their loved ones.

[Snarl]

About a quarter century ago I went out to the woods to see how I would fare. This was central Florida on the southeastern edge of the Ocala Natl Forest. I managed to hold my own for about 6 months before I came crawling back up on the porch half dead ... literally. Lesson learned. I did NOT have my wife and kids with me. And, that is a central point to this post. It was just me ... trying to survive. There was no competition ... no rules or restrictions ... no one to defend myself against ... but, it was just me too.

How many prepper dudes do you know who haven't invested in a plate carrier and armor for their wives and kids? Are you (just asking out loud to the general reader) one of 'em?

I've setup a homestead here. One with real live animals that need to be taken care of. Most people have zero concept of how much work all that involves. I hurt my back a little and have been laying-off for a week now. My 'foreman' looks like he's about to go under while I'm recovering. Keeps picking up 'help' from the local Walmart parking lot <heh heh>.

Yeah ... it's a big job ... horses, mules (a donkey now), cattle, goats, hogs, a dozen new lambs and a gaggle of chickens (because they sure don't flock). Plus, I've got two fields I've been working for two years (we're talking serious commitment and investment) to get ready for planting. All too easy with a tractor and loads of money from my savings account. But this year, I'll finish collecting the tools and rigs necessary to keep the place going if I can't run the tractor. Hopefully, next year we'll have a cash crop and can call the place a working farm instead of just a homestead.

As for prepping, I'm okay with all but one of the neighbors around here and lots of community members. Some of 'em have the same mindset I have if SHTF. I also think we're far enough off the beaten track to be left alone should the grid go down. Still have a rally point and a secondary. It'll really be SHTF if we have to go there.

I have to echo that good advice from InfoLurker: No matter what you do, don't get on the FEMA bus. And, I'd add: Do what you know needs to be done ... and don't talk about it after. SSS

[TheRedneck]

it's pretty much that way in many of the big million plus cities now hell it's even that way in lower population cities, and yes there are gangs roaming the streets and yes they do strike in packs with a shot calling gang leader.

your expecting it not to increase if pooh pooh gets deep. that's a very unrealistic view.

No, I said it would increase, just not into some version of a "Mad Max" apocalypse. Laws will remain in place and there will still be police, just not as many to enforce the laws.

The point is, one can either take their chances where they are, in a familiar setting where they know the terrain, or they can try to re-establish themselves somewhere unfamiliar. That last option seems a lot riskier to me. Like it or not, no man is an island. No man can be an island. At some point, everyone needs something from a neighbor or friend.

The very concept of a "bug-out bag" is a good idea for emergency escape from temporary disasters that has been taken to new and unrealistic lengths by those seeking profit. Yes, if there's a major flood or a tornado outbreak or a volcanic eruption or a wildfire, it is a great idea to have the essentials already packed and ready to go. One never knows when they might have to flee such occurrences. But for long-term survival? The very idea of living as a refugee is rarely preferable to sticking it out a few days to fully prepare.

The place most people plan on bugging out to is where people coexist through mutual respect. The elements are not one's biggest concern in such a case; the locals are. Camping on their property is a massive show of disrespect, and they will remove anyone doing so. They're as concerned about their safety and livelihood as you are, and they are armed and know the area. You'd be better off with the roving gangs... at least they're poor shots as a rule.

TheRedneck

[Infolurker]

I plan on bugging in unless the FEMA bus is coming.

Anyone see "The Last Of Us" episode 3 I think it was?

Don't get on the FEMA bus.

[Ninurta]

I have a friend named Franklin Horton who is an author and write post apocalyptic stuff. It's set in this area of the mountains, and explores the ramifications of societal collapse and the human dynamics that are likely to ensue in the aftermath. One of the characters in his "The Borrowed World" series, Hugh, was inspired by me. Franklin and I go back a long way - we worked at a local radio station together back in the early 80's.

You should check out his stuff - I think you'd like it!

"The Borrowed World" series on Amazon

[727Sky]