I think it might all have just been a tempest in a teapot. I think all the claims of a "Russian Civil War" were entirely overblown, but folks making those claims were probably taking their cues from the Kremlin, who were all huddling in corners and pissing themselves that some kind of "insurrection" was about to happen. Kinda like Dems did during the Jan 6 "insurrection", except this one had actual weapons involved - they were just not being pointed at the government.
I've not read or seen anything from Prigozhin threatening a governmental overthrow. He seems to just be highly pissed at a couple guys in the top brass that screwed over the mercenaries. Prigozhin has stated, numerous times, that they were just gonna settle their hash on the couple of brassy fellas, and then go back to the front. He stated specifically that police and presidential powers were not going to change, that they were going to stay intact. That ain't any kinda coup or insurrection that I'm familiar with - it's just a promise to take down a couple of guys that don't know how to play nice with dangerous folk. It seems to be just a settling of accounts with a couple guys, not the government in general.
Now, some other groups seem to have taken their cues from the Kremlin, too, and started yelling "Yay! Revolution!". Some Chechens come to mind, but we all know that the Chechens have had the red-ass at Russians for quite some time, anyhow. I mean, if the Russians came in, wrecked my capitol, and killed off a bunch of my friends, I might not be too charitably disposed towards them, either. Now multiply that by about 400 years, and you start to see where the Chechens are coming from.
Then there are some Belarusskies who are chomping at the bit. Note that Belarus is strongly supporting Russia, as allies are s'posed to do, but there are a number of Belarusskies who took it upon themselves to individually pursue foreign policy, independent of their governments wishes, and decided to roll into the Ukraine and start hosing some Russkies. I take it, then, that they may be somewhat at odds with their own government, and should realize what's gonna happen to them when they go home after the war if there is no change in the Belarussian government. So they've got a vested interest in regime change in Belarus, and they seem to have taken this as a general apocalypse sign and started talkin' shit about their own leadership, what changes are needed in their eyes, and what all they're gonna do.
So it really looks to me at the moment like Wagner just wants to settle accounts with a couple lower level functionaries (lower level that Putin, anyhow), and then go back to their war, rather than overthrow the government or anything drastic like that. Further, it looks like a few other folks, with an axe to grind, decided this was it, and they were gonna get their share of the "revolution" too, and overestimated what was happening all by their little selves. They were thinking about, and hoping for, a more general uprising than Prigozhin had in mind, I think.
Then the Kremlin panicked. Hilarity is ensuing.
Just my take on it at the moment. All these claims of an "impending Russian Civil War" are way off base - the Russian civil War started when the Ukraine seceded from Russia, in my opinion, and has been going on for a while. It just heated up recently when Mother Russia decided to do something about that pesky breakaway province and invade, and now some folks are either pissin' themselves or chomping at the bit, as their hearts lead them, over what they perceive as a general uprising that just ain't gonna happen if Wagner has to lead it.
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I've not read or seen anything from Prigozhin threatening a governmental overthrow. He seems to just be highly pissed at a couple guys in the top brass that screwed over the mercenaries. Prigozhin has stated, numerous times, that they were just gonna settle their hash on the couple of brassy fellas, and then go back to the front. He stated specifically that police and presidential powers were not going to change, that they were going to stay intact. That ain't any kinda coup or insurrection that I'm familiar with - it's just a promise to take down a couple of guys that don't know how to play nice with dangerous folk. It seems to be just a settling of accounts with a couple guys, not the government in general.
Now, some other groups seem to have taken their cues from the Kremlin, too, and started yelling "Yay! Revolution!". Some Chechens come to mind, but we all know that the Chechens have had the red-ass at Russians for quite some time, anyhow. I mean, if the Russians came in, wrecked my capitol, and killed off a bunch of my friends, I might not be too charitably disposed towards them, either. Now multiply that by about 400 years, and you start to see where the Chechens are coming from.
Then there are some Belarusskies who are chomping at the bit. Note that Belarus is strongly supporting Russia, as allies are s'posed to do, but there are a number of Belarusskies who took it upon themselves to individually pursue foreign policy, independent of their governments wishes, and decided to roll into the Ukraine and start hosing some Russkies. I take it, then, that they may be somewhat at odds with their own government, and should realize what's gonna happen to them when they go home after the war if there is no change in the Belarussian government. So they've got a vested interest in regime change in Belarus, and they seem to have taken this as a general apocalypse sign and started talkin' shit about their own leadership, what changes are needed in their eyes, and what all they're gonna do.
So it really looks to me at the moment like Wagner just wants to settle accounts with a couple lower level functionaries (lower level that Putin, anyhow), and then go back to their war, rather than overthrow the government or anything drastic like that. Further, it looks like a few other folks, with an axe to grind, decided this was it, and they were gonna get their share of the "revolution" too, and overestimated what was happening all by their little selves. They were thinking about, and hoping for, a more general uprising than Prigozhin had in mind, I think.
Then the Kremlin panicked. Hilarity is ensuing.
Just my take on it at the moment. All these claims of an "impending Russian Civil War" are way off base - the Russian civil War started when the Ukraine seceded from Russia, in my opinion, and has been going on for a while. It just heated up recently when Mother Russia decided to do something about that pesky breakaway province and invade, and now some folks are either pissin' themselves or chomping at the bit, as their hearts lead them, over what they perceive as a general uprising that just ain't gonna happen if Wagner has to lead it.
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