300 dead, 1600 injured and still counting

[putnam6]

  I just watched this from your link... 


I agree Israel must have clear goals, of course, some will say they do, as they have stated it's the complete elimination of Hamas. Could have sworn I saw a minor protest of the Palestinian President calling for him to resign, but it's no doubt been squashed or drowned out from all that is occurring. 

it is simple...

#1 Release the hostages if not all the hostages damn well certain the civilian ones

#2 Stop all missile and rocket attacks from Gaza

#3 Stop attacks inside and outside greater Israel

#4 Turnover the leaders of Hamas, and those who did the drug-crazed siege of southern Israel 

We know thats not going to happen Hamas still thinks they can negotiate the release of some of their prisoners

but otherwise, Israel leaves itself open to more attacks and more attacks and it's better to nip that in the bud than to face it over and over. Again at the very least. 

I also know whenever Biden whispers something, it's even more complete bullshit than his normal BS. We were already running low on certain arms and munitions from Ukraine. FWIW that could have emboldened Hamas a little bit in itself as it tries to get more of the Arab world directly involved

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-769567

Obviously, the PTB in Israel is doing this to avoid any more civilian deaths or kidnappings, rightfully so

BREAKING NEWS
14 northern Israel communities to be evacuated

An additional 14 communities in northern Israel were added to the state-funded evacuation plan by the IDF and the National Emergency Management Authority (NEMA), according to a joint statement from the Defense Ministry and the IDF.

The communities that are being evacuated are Snir, Dan, Beit Hillel, She'ar Yashuv, Hagoshrim, Liman, Matzuva, Eylon, Goren, Granot Hagalil, Even Menachem, Sasa, Tzivon, and Ramot Naftali

I understand that is what Israel says the objective is, to completely remove Hamas from power, but the question is whether or not that's doable without starting WW3. Here I believe we likely agree.

As to getting another ceasefire going, they were under a ceasefire when Hamas did this on the 7th. So, Hamas cannot be trusted to keep their word, which goes back to them being a terrorist organization with their only goal being to kill or otherwise push out the Jews completely. They aren't any kind of government. 

The second Israel is under a two front war is the second we are completely in regardless, we have a defense pact with them. 

We are at our nations weakest point, which is why we are seeing Russia, China, and other countries and peoples working together to get us embroiled in this quagmire. 

For Israel to actually get rid fully of Hamas two things have to be considered - what is going to replace Hamas (power vacuums will be filled, so you have to have something amenable in place or what you'll end up with will be worse) once you get rid of Hamas. 

And the second consideration is what will be the "civilian" casualties. Because to get rid of Hamas fully - those casualties will be very high , Hamas will make sure of it. 

We are already seeing the middle east blow up over this and Israel has not done 1 thing that was out of line for the situation. 

What happens when there's real stuff to show on the news? There will be no getting out of a very major war with many countries at that point, and apparently no one wants to stop funding Ukraine yet.

Our best bet is to find some doable goals that will minimize loss of life and give us a fighting chance. 

In this asking for Hamas' top 100, a different government in Gaza (if possible as that still may not be doable) and the hostages back. 

These are reasonable demands - and sounds more giving than all of Hamas dead, exiled or jailed. 

You can ask for every woman and child under 16 to leave Gaza for safety's sake and go to war with the rest there fighting, but the ex-Hamas guy is right, the tunnels pose a serious problem and they have to be dealt with... 

And then you have to ask whether other countries will even take Palestinian women and children - so far it's a big fat no from Muslim nations. If you can't get them out they are simply going to be used as Human shields by Hamas and your back to the optics and other nations jumping in. 

You might think the US military might is a deterrent, but world opinion with all this Marxist ideology coupled with a weak and broke government, we aren't going to deter anyone I fear. 

So our best bet is to have Israel give a little on getting rid of Hamas in full... I think Hamas needs to be severely wounded such that it will take a good long while for them to regroup, but i do believe this situation was set up just to get two birds with one stone (or two stones if you will). To get Israel and the United States both in a two front war (two of Israel's border's and Ukraine and Israel for us) while the US is in debt up to our eyeballs to China and the US is at civil unrest internally. 

This has the potential to destroy us if we aren't willing to do what it takes to survive it - and I don't see our leadership as willing. Unfortunately, neither does anyone else, which is why they're dog piling now.

I think the difference between what we are thinking is to what extent Hamas needs to go, which is a doable conversation to have as it's achievable to come to agreement here.

First of all thanks for the discussion, I try not to talk about this in the real world it's good to have an outlet. Most places on social media are in complete chaos and rational talks are impossible. 

I was 8 years old when Munich happened, subsequent generations don't understand when it comes to hostages Israel is a honey badger it will not quit.  IIRC the story of the civilian American contractor who worked for years in Iraq, helping to rebuild the country. He developed a friendship with an Iraqi over the years and one day he talked about going outside the green zone. His Iraqi friend told him to not talk of such things and to never go out unescorted. The contractor asked why, he had been there for years all he had done was help rebuild, etc, the Iraqi told him in no uncertain terms if he went outside the green zone he would be either kidnapped and held for ransom or be robbed and have his throat slit. Thats the attitudes what we are dealing with currently

Most of the GP don't understand what it is like in the Middle East, hell I don't either but Ive read stories and have had the privilege to work with all kinds of nationalities over the years and always listened to their experiences.

I think Hamas made a serious miscalculation, and who knows they may have been given assurances, but they thought there would be more of an uprising in the Arab world. It still may happen, but they had to know such an attack was going to bring about an immediate brutal response. As enflamed as the Muslim general public is until there is complete mobilization of the actual armies, we will see a measured response followed by a measured response. So far we are seeing the Arab world saying things like if the Israeli aggression continues they can't guarantee the security of the oil fields. Collectively we should be past such concerns, Turkey is the wildcard here, the fact they are a NATO member nation, and just hearing they want to run exercises while the US Navy is in the vicinity, we don't need more defections that embolden Hamas. This is the part where the weakness of the American administration played a huge part in my estimation. Instead of being able to turn down the temperature, it's ratcheting up. As Ramaswamy said though Israel could pound Gaza completely into the sand and yet, and they haven't. Is about the only hopeful part of this so far. 

Working with so many nationalities over the years and as a "dumb, self-centered" American I used to always go back to this quote, during times such as these the events of these past 15 days have rocked that a little bit. I still think there is 15-20% of both sides who want to tear each other to bits, consequences be damned, it's the 60% wanting everybody to calm down and be semi-rational for a moment. It seems we are living The Strauss–Howe generational theory of the book The Fourth Turning.