(Yesterday, 06:49 AM)Kenzo1 Wrote: It`s not certain that Iranians can overthrow regime . So the risk here for Iranians opposing the regime are big.
It could happen and they get rid the regime. But there is some resilience on Iran’s Theocracy system .
Let`s not forget that this escalation means also that if the regime survives ,all gloves are off and they will go to build the bomb for sure as an only option to survive from attacks in the future . They may get weapons-grade HEU from North Korea " possibly", satellites cant detect HEU inside submarine underwater, NK has submarines .
I think it's a sure bet that, if they are armed, the Iranian people can take their country back. Sure, the risk is big, but the risk of doing nothing is even bigger. The risk has been big for the protesters for a long time now. The regime has killed 30,000 of them just in this last round of protests. That's a pretty big risk. They did it anyhow. There would be no stopping them if weapons were air-dropped in for them to take their country back with.
Yes, resilience is built in to the Iranian regime system. However, they are currently at war with the entire Arab world (other than Lebanon, I think. I've not heard of any strikes in Lebanon or North Africa, so maybe they are at war with just the entire Middle East). The US and Israel are continuing to disassemble the Iranian command structure, and the means for the Iranian regime to fight back. With that pressure from the top down, the regime over-extending itself to try to fight everyone in the Middle East, and the Iranian people's pressure from the bottom up, out in the streets, the regime would have no choice but to collapse under it's own dwindling weight.
I'm not to worried about North Korea. I doubt they have enough HEU to just give it away to Iran. They've got their own bombs to build, you know? Besides, who are they going to give it to in Iran if enough pressure is kept on to collapse the Islamic regime in Iran?
And on top of that, trump has said Iran cannot have nukes. Period. Most of the world has said that... but we can see, I think, that whatever else he may be, Trump keeps his word. I really wouldn't want to be Iran OR North Korea if they tried to cut any kinds of HEU transfer deal.
So, really, it all hinges on whether we go ahead and arm the Iranian people, or just sit back and wait for MEK to take Iran over.
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“Trouble rather the tiger in his lair than the sage among his books. For to you kingdoms and their armies are things mighty and enduring, but to him they are but toys of the moment, to be overturned with the flick of a finger.”
― Gordon R. Dickson, Tactics of Mistake
― Gordon R. Dickson, Tactics of Mistake