So many thoughts here...
I guess I'll just break them up into bullet points.
I guess I'll just break them up into bullet points.
- Nothing happens fast in China. It's why their history goes back thousands of years. Having spent much time in China personally, their whole culture revolves around unrelenting pressure to 'bend', not to 'break'. It's in their DNA, their psychological construct. After you spend some time in China working with the Chinese you begin to see this and, once you recognize it for what it is, you'll see it everywhere, in every walk of life.
- As others have noted, communism in China is a relatively new thing. China existed as a nation for thousands of years before communism. Communism will not be the last form of governance in China, nor will the next thing after it. Nor the next after that.
- This most recent crisis is different from crises in the past. Historically, the Chinese people were very self-sufficient throughout antiquity. This is not true today, especially in the larger cities of China. People are much more dependent on the government to survive now, and this is why communism has 'sort of' worked in China up until now.
- Communism will ultimately fail in China for the same reasons it always fails. It will fail because there is nowhere left to hide the debt. Communism works for a while when there is still financial liquidity in the country. Money, and in particular, debt, can be 'hidden' in things like infrastructure projects and social programs, etc. But eventually this money runs out, and credit lines to borrow more are shut down. Then there's no one left to 'pay the bills'. Society is made up of exclusively consumers, not providers (be it money, food or basic needs).
- If you look, not even that carefully, you can now see the logic behind Trump's tariffs, especially on China. The timing couldn't possibly be better, albeit maybe 5 years too late in starting. If you notice China's reaction to these tariffs, they aren't things which injure the west; they are things which only further injure China. This illustrates just how desperate China is. Xi knows the situation is dire. Even at 50+% Xi is not about to damage the relationship with China's biggest customer (by a country mile), America. He knows if he does it only makes China's own situation even worse. So, this is why you see China's response to the tariffs is things like making public statements about how they won't buy American steel. China doesn't buy American steel in the first place, so stopping future imports does nothing. Equally, China says they will stop importing America's grain. Okay, they wind up starving their own people without it. It just demonstrates how absolutely dependent the Chinese are on exports to America. Without them, China dies on the vine.
- But back to the first point; nothing happens fast in China. Change takes hundreds of years in China. China won't roll over and die tomorrow, and they won't raise the white flag tomorrow either. China's whole philosophy is about endurance, not speed. And this is how they will react now, communism, Xi, or not. Leaders may change. Styles of governance may change. But drastic and immediate changes to China as a whole won't happen.