Four Scenarios for Geopolitical Disorder in 2025-2030

[MykeNukem]

My thinking the past few years is more less been set on a fashion or fraction of multipolarity world order. Neither side (alliances) is going to get what they ultimately want so some sort of compromise will eventually be agreed upon and life will move on till the next conflict tug-of-war. This will probably happen some time after Israel is done clearing out the trouble-makers in the Middle East. Israel has big, big economic plans for the Eurasian zone which will include both Russia & China at least in the technology sector.

Russia is, of course, a potential candidate for great-power status based on its massive land area, massive natural resources, and huge stockpile of nuclear weapons. The country certainly has an impact beyond its borders. However, it has a small economy smaller than Commiefornia and a military budget equaling only one-quarter of China's at most. At most, Russia can play a supporting role for China.

A widespread argument among those who believe in full-on multi-polarity is the rise of the global south and the shrinking position of the West. However, the presence of old and new middle powers such as India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, and Saudi Arabia are often named as additions to the BRICS roster does not make the system multi-polar, since none of these countries has the economic power, military might, and other forms of influence to be a pole of its own. In other words, these countries lack ability to vie with the United States and China.

Everything on the Geopolitics chessboard is changing so fast nobody can keep up, so very difficult to predict even for the near future.

Mackinder's heartland theory

This theory was proposed by Sir Halford Mackinder in his 1904 essay, “The Geographical Pivot of History.” There is a lot to this theory and its importance, so let’s outline some key terms:

1. Heartland=Eastern Europe
2. Pivot Area=Heartland
3. World Island=Europe, Asia and Africa
4. Periphery=Rest of the world (including the Americas)

Keep in mind that big historical figures, like Hitler, believed in the Heartland Theory, and this theory was at the heart –no pun intended—of the politics in both World Wars, the Vietnam War and the Cold War. Plus, it discusses a little something called world domination. Are you starting to see why this is a BIG deal?

Do you know who else spoke of & quoted this theory?

The Grand Chessboard - American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives (1997) [PDF] by ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI.






The Arctic may become the next new hot zone. The first Arctic transit of a large container ship just made history. The 294-meter Flying Fish 1 traveled from St. Petersburg, Russia to Shanghai in just over three weeks, cutting two weeks off the traditional route via the Suez Canal.

This marks a major milestone for Arctic shipping, with nearly 20 transits expected this year, connecting Russian and Chinese ports through the Northern Sea Route.

The ship, operated by EZ Safetrans Logistics, maintained a steady speed without icebreaker assistance, highlighting how much Arctic conditions have changed.

First Panamax Containership Sprints Across Arctic Reaching China In Just Three Weeks

Russia has over 40 ice breakers. At least one is nuclear powered.

The USA has one.



Both the Russian (big scary one in top photo) & Canadian icebreakers are currently in active service. Meanwhile, the US Coast Guard Polar Sea has been out of service since 2010 due to failure of five of her six Alco main diesel engines. Seven years later it was decided it would be cannibalized for parts to support her sister Polar Star.

We better hurry up...

Trump memo demands new fleet of Arctic icebreakers be ready by 2029 (June 9, 2020)


"The country that controls the Arctic controls the world." - CSIS expert Heather Conley

THE ICE CURTAIN: RUSSIA’S ARCTIC MILITARY PRESENCE

Nice addition!

I'll go through this tonight, thanks.