New Year's predictions on the World's Stage

[EndtheMadnessNow]

Economic ‘mega threats’ – star economist Nouriel Roubini on the dangers lurking in 2023




Taiwan: Why the US & China are on collision course for war

(Timestamped chapters)

China's President Xi Jinping has vowed that Beijing will "reunify" with the island – if necessary, by force. A large majority of people in Taiwan say they don't want reunification. The United States is increasingly clear that it would intervene to defend Taiwan from any attack.

How did it come to this – and what happens next?

In this special analysis, DW's Richard Walker uncovers the roots of the dispute over Taiwan, in part 1 tracing how the diplomatic breakthroughs of the 1970s between the US and China left unfinished business that has festered ever since.

Part 2 tracks why these tensions have now burst into the open, with accusations of betrayal in all directions. And part 3 projects trends in China, the United States and Taiwan forward into the future to assess where the dispute is heading – and if there is any way of avoiding war.

Leading US authority on Taiwan, Shelley Rigger warns: "I think the danger is greater today than it has ever been before. The US and China are in this spiral of threat and counter threat, and Taiwan is caught in the middle." Retired People’s Liberation Army Senior Colonel Zhou Bo explains the scenarios under which China would use force. Former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd sets out ideas for a diplomatic solution that he admits both China and Taiwan would "hate." CNAS think tank Chair Michèle Flournoy sets out her bottom line: "The key thing is for Beijing to recognize that if you go to war to seize Taiwan, you lose."

Based on USA-China-Taiwan relations going back 50 years this quote comes to mind:
"The underlying aim was not to win the war, but to use the conflict to create a constant state of destabilized perception in order to manage and control."
― Vladislav Yuryevich Surkov

So the perception with diplomatic gymnastics continues until someone calls a bluff and we goto war, Or Biden does an Afghan bailout move & Taiwan welcomes China without firing a shot from either side.