Europe Enters Century of Humiliation?

[EndtheMadnessNow]

Jurij Kofner is an economist and an economic policy advisor to AfD. Kofner discusses the de-industrialisation and economic decline in Germany, and the wider socio-economic and political challenges that continue to threaten the relevance of Europe.




F2d5thCav - if you see this post and have the time to listen (1 hr) let me know your take on Kofner, specifically concerning his economic & militarizing views on Germany. Most of his analysis resonated with me. Thanks.

[F2d5thCav]

ETMN,

  Thanks for the heads-up.  May take a day or so, but I'll watch it and provide comments.

[F2d5thCav]

Some observations.

Kofner mentioned concerns/situations which are factual.  But beyond naming problems, he didn't offer anything that sounded like solutions.  AfD obviously wants to rule Germany and redefine what "establishment politics" mean there ... but they'll need more than finger pointing and moaning to be an effective government.

His background is noteworthy, apparently some (maybe half) of his heritage is Russian, and like many people with Russian heritage, he appears to view the old Motherland with far too much sentiment at the expense of hard nosed assessment of realities.  Kofner is also (in some way) part of Putin's "Greater Eurasia Project" which imagines a Russia and Europe working together for mutual profit ... under Russian direction.

Well.  No matter what one thinks of Putin and his style of governance, Russian society has been and remains a mess under his watch.  His system has rewarded a select few and made Moscow and St Petersburg glitter like baubles, but the rest of Russia was left behind in a mess of backwardness and open corruption.  Sure, how the Russians run their own country is their business ... but their way of doing things at the moment make them a poor candidate to lead a project like the one imagined by Putin.  We can't be sure of what Kofner privately thinks about such things, but he gives no public indication of understanding just how problematic such an arrangement would be for Europe.

He likes the term "vassals" to describe Europe's relationship to the USA.  Hmm, some truth in that especially considering the military / security situation.  But again, Kofner either fantasizes that Europe can enjoy sovereignty while enjoying a stress free relationship with a nuclear armed Russia, or he is ignorant of the dominant role played by (those very expensive) nuclear weapons (built by the USA and in part used to provide a nuclear shield over Europe).  How would he propose to build Europe's own nuclear arsenal AND revive its stagnant economy at the same time ?

He is correct that gas was cheap when it was bought from Russia, but Russia and Germany becoming best buds is nothing but a replay of Nazi-Soviet Pact with all of the catastrophic consequences for the countries in between.  Those countries don't want to become the bloodlands again just so Putin and the AfD people can feel like movers and shakers.  Focusing on Russian gas ignores other possibilities (like allowing Poland to develop the massive gas fields they've discovered in the Baltic and buying gas from them).

IT corporation difficulties ... yeah, I recall all the US offices using PCs and networks while the Germans still loved their four-ring binders to hold information.  Nice to have paper copy, but it should not have been for daily operational use.

I have little time for Euro-yelping about how the USA is now a bully.  The European leadership had a magnificent opportunity in 1989, but were unable to realize its potential because they are still in the thrall of nineteenth century outlooks regarding relations with other countries ... France, Germany, and Russia being the most guilty of this behavior.  Put MAGA-wise, they have their own deep state problems as well as an apparent inability to recognize their own socio-national agendas, and it spells hard times for the European Union as a political project. (Some of the economic agreements may prove to be more durable.)  So, up to now, the European leadership squandered 36 years of opportunities (1/3 of an entire century!) and the Realpolitik chickens have come home to roost.