Battle Damage Assessment - Iran

[FCD]

Well, it seems pretty clear now that a lethal blow was dealt to Iran's nuke production facilities.  Now, even Iran is confirming it...even their military too.

After I looked at the very first satellite images I had a pretty good idea the damage was far worse than what some of these people bent on torpedoing Trump were saying.  Those holes in the mountain are pretty tiny compared to the amount of ordnance dropped on them.  All that explosive energy had to disperse somewhere, and it didn't do it above ground, so the only other place it could have released all that energy was below ground.  When you look at those penetration holes again with this in mind, I think you'll see what I'm talking about.  You can see the entrance hole, but there's no massive crater there, and there would be if you detonated a 30k lb bomb on the surface.  So those things detonated underground.  I'd be shocked if there's anything left at all inside those facilities.  Those penetrator weapons probably liquefied everything inside...including any poor bastages inside at the time (which you know there were).

[F2d5thCav]

The massive size of those bombs is apparent when one sees them exit the B-2.

I think for the moment, the regime in Tehran is determined to rebuild whatever facilities/capability they lost.  We'll see if that changes down the road.

[sailorsam]

the planes were barely back in the hangar when the naysayers started the 'not that much damage' talk.

CNN etc ran with it of course.

frustrating we can't get to the truth too easily.

[Bally002]

Well, it seems pretty clear now that a lethal blow was dealt to Iran's nuke production facilities.  Now, even Iran is confirming it...even their military too.

After I looked at the very first satellite images I had a pretty good idea the damage was far worse than what some of these people bent on torpedoing Trump were saying.  Those holes in the mountain are pretty tiny compared to the amount of ordnance dropped on them.  All that explosive energy had to disperse somewhere, and it didn't do it above ground, so the only other place it could have released all that energy was below ground.  When you look at those penetration holes again with this in mind, I think you'll see what I'm talking about.  You can see the entrance hole, but there's no massive crater there, and there would be if you detonated a 30k lb bomb on the surface.  So those things detonated underground.  I'd be shocked if there's anything left at all inside those facilities.  Those penetrator weapons probably liquefied everything inside...including any poor bastages inside at the time (which you know there were).

I am sure there are doubters, like the press for interest,
Do it again.  Targeting the same holes.........Just to be sure.

Say "thanks for the suggestion press people, do you want us to do it another time?"

Bally)

[727Sky]

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Did the US or Israel have schematics and blueprints of the Fodrow nuclear plant? How difficult to penetrate thought the ventilation shafts to hit something critical


Access to Schematics and Blueprints of the Fordow Nuclear Plant
Yes, both the United States and Israel likely had access to detailed schematics and blueprints of Iran's Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, primarily due to a 2018 Israeli intelligence operation. Israel's Mossad conducted a raid on a warehouse in Tehran, where they stole a significant archive of documents related to Iran's nuclear program, including detailed designs and diagrams of the Fordow facility (referred to as the Al Ghadir project in some documents). These documents provided insights into the underground structure, including the layout of tunnels, centrifuge halls, and critical infrastructure like ventilation shafts.
The stolen archive, parts of which were made public, included schematics that showed the facility's underground layout, with specifics on the location of ventilation shafts and service-related structures. These documents were analyzed by experts, such as those at the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), who used them to map the facility's design onto satellite imagery. This gave both the U.S. and Israel a clear understanding of Fordow's layout, including potential vulnerabilities like ventilation shafts.
Additionally, historical satellite imagery and construction photos from as early as 2009, when the ventilation shaft was being built, provided further intelligence. The U.S. also reportedly constructed a replica of Fordow in the desert and tested the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) against it, indicating access to detailed structural information to simulate the facility's design.
Difficulty of Penetrating Ventilation Shafts to Hit Critical Components
Penetrating the Fordow facility through its ventilation shafts to hit critical components, such as the centrifuge halls, is considered a highly challenging but strategically viable approach due to the facility's fortified design. Here are the key factors affecting the difficulty:

1. Depth and Fortification:
   
   • Fordow is buried approximately 80–90 meters (262–295 feet) under a mountain, reinforced with concrete, making it one of Iran's most protected nuclear sites.
     
   • Most conventional bunker-buster bombs, including Israel's GBU-28 and BLU-109, can only penetrate up to 6–10 meters of concrete or 25 meters of soil, rendering them insufficient to reach the centrifuge halls directly.
     
     
     
     
     
   • The U.S. GBU-57 MOP, carried exclusively by B-2 stealth bombers, is designed to penetrate up to 61 meters (200 feet) of earth or 18 meters of concrete. Even this bomb may not reach the full depth of Fordow's halls with a single strike, requiring multiple sequential drops to "dig" deeper.
     
   
   
2. Ventilation Shafts as Vulnerabilities:
   
   • Ventilation shafts are considered a critical vulnerability because they provide a direct pathway through the rock to the underground facility, bypassing some of the protective layers.
     
   • Satellite imagery and stolen schematics identified the location of at least one ventilation shaft, which was camouflaged after construction but visible in historical imagery.
     
   • U.S. strikes on June 22, 2025, reportedly targeted these shafts, with satellite imagery showing six craters (two clusters of three) aligned with the ventilation shaft and service structures above the centrifuge halls. Experts suggest that targeting the shafts allowed MOPs to penetrate deeper, as the shafts interrupt the rock's integrity, potentially reaching or damaging the enrichment halls.
     
   • Iran attempted to mitigate this vulnerability by backfilling entrances and possibly covering ventilation shafts with concrete before the U.S. strikes, but the MOPs were able to penetrate these defenses.
     
   
   
3. Challenges in Hitting Critical Components:
   
   • The centrifuge halls, housing approximately 3,000 centrifuges, are the primary critical components at Fordow. These are highly sensitive to shock and vibration, and even if the halls are not completely destroyed, the explosive force of MOPs could render centrifuges inoperable through shockwaves or temperature effects.
     
   • Experts note that penetrating the ventilation shafts could cause significant damage by channeling explosive energy into the underground spaces, potentially destroying equipment or disrupting operations for years. However, irregularities in the mountain's geology could deflect shockwaves, reducing effectiveness.
     
   • Assessments vary on the extent of damage. Some sources, including the Israel Atomic Energy Commission and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, suggest the facility was "severely damaged" or "inoperable," with centrifuges likely destroyed. Others, including a leaked U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency assessment, indicate the strikes may have only set back operations by months, suggesting partial survival of critical components.
     
   
   
4. Alternative Approaches:
   
   • Beyond airstrikes, sabotage or commando raids could target ventilation shafts or power supplies to disable the facility. For example, cutting power could cause centrifuges to spin out of control, as seen in previous attacks on Natanz. However, a ground operation to plant explosives inside the shafts would be high-risk and logistically complex.
     
   • Israel has a history of successful sabotage, such as the Stuxnet cyberattack on Natanz, but physical access to Fordow's ventilation shafts would require penetrating a heavily guarded facility near Qom, a sensitive religious site, increasing political and operational risks.
     
   
   

Conclusion: The U.S. and Israel had access to detailed schematics of Fordow, thanks to the 2018 Mossad operation and subsequent intelligence analysis, enabling precise targeting of vulnerabilities like ventilation shafts. Penetrating these shafts with GBU-57 MOPs was a strategic choice to bypass the facility's deep fortification, but it remained a difficult task due to the 80–90-meter depth and geological challenges. While the U.S. strikes in June 2025 likely caused significant damage, possibly rendering the centrifuge halls inoperable, uncertainties remain about the full extent of destruction. Multiple MOP strikes on the ventilation shafts appear to have exploited a key weakness, but complete destruction of critical components is not guaranteed, and Iran may retain some capacity to recover.

https://x.com/i/grok/share/bP9ibnLWFFnc3ss7Q4Oa91Fos

[FCD]

So, two things...

1. I keep seeing media references saying things like the... 'Iran strike may have destroyed some of Iran's nuclear production capabilities',... and this is usually followed by a statement saying..."BUT, complete destruction is not guaranteed and Iran MAY have the capability to recover and/or resume"

Well DUH!!  Of course they do!!  Even if the strikes reduced every single piece of these production facilities to particles the size of dust, Iran will ALWAYS have the capability to build something new!!  They built it the first time, for cripes sakes!  They "could" build them again!  Doesn't take a rocket surgeon to figure this out.

This is just the MSM trying to throw out more sour grapes on Trump.

And...

2. Maybe Israel's Mossad did share plans of the facilities with US officials to assist in targeting.  However, don't let yourself be fooled that this was done in the interest of eliminating Iran's nuke capability as the sole reason.  If this was even a tiny contributing factor at all, I would be surprised.  The Mossad has all sorts of information they NEVER share with US Intelligence, because they are not interested in "helping" the US Intelligence community...at all.  If they did share intel for targeting purposes, I'm sure their sole reasoning was that an attack would bring drag the US into the conflict between Israel and Iran, more so than any other single factor.

[FCD]

And another thing...

I don't find a whole lot of comfort one way or the other in Iran acknowledging (or denying) the extent of damages caused by the US airstrikes to their nuclear facilities.

The MSM seems to be making a big deal out of this, especially with their FM now publicly disagreeing with the Iranian Assahola.  

As others have noted, if the Iranian officials lips are moving there's a better than average chance they are lying.

Plus, if you think about it, there are some 'up' sides to Iran claiming more damage rather than less.  So, it doesn't really matter what they say, good or bad, about the airstrikes and the damage done.

Now, if the FM / PM were to come out and urge the Iranian public to condemn the Assahola and to call for his head to be served up on a platter, well, that might be something, but I'm not holding my breath.

[F2d5thCav]

Well, yeah, that bit about intel sharing ... sovereign powers always operate in their own interest.

Our broken media, some misleading "works" on history, and Hollyweird have implanted a popular notion that somehow international alliances are like little boys in a sandbox who are best friends forever.

Even with the "best" of allies, it is quid pro quo all the time, every time.  There are no freebies between nations in this world.

There -is-, in some cases, lingering sentiment over events that occurred, but that usually disappears with the generations that lived it ... unless it is a society like those in the Middle East (or Serbia) who make a national hobby out of fixating on slights and battles from the Middle Ages.