Quote:Rebuilding U.S. Inventories: Six Critical Systems

As the United States transfers massive amounts of weapons, munitions, and supplies to Ukraine, questions arise about the health of U.S. inventories. Are inventories getting too low? How long will it take to rebuild those inventories? An earlier CSIS commentary identified those inventories that are at risk as a result of transfers to Ukraine. This commentary continues that analysis by examining inventory replacement times. Most inventories, though not all, will take many years to replace. For most items, there are workarounds, but there may be a crisis brewing over artillery ammunition.
Summary

The table below lays out weapons and munitions where concerns have arisen about inventories.



Note: The table is built from DOD sources plus estimates based on administration statements, news reports, interviews with officials, and the author's experience in the military as an artillery officer and with acquisition in the Pentagon. The number transferred to Ukraine comes from periodic DOD fact sheets. Production rates come from DOD budget documents, particularly the Army's procurement justification books for missiles and ammunition. "Recent" production reflects levels funded in the last few years. "Surge" reflects higher rates where DOD has said it would increase production. This higher rate is either the "1-8-5" or "MAX" level depending on where current production is. It takes one to two years to get to this higher level. For munitions, the production applied to rebuilding inventories is reduced to account for U.S. peacetime training and stockpile testing. “Manufacturing lead time” is the period between when a contract is signed and when the first item arrives. This interval is typically about 24 months but varies by system. “Production time” is how long it would take to produce all the required inventory. “Total time to rebuild” includes both manufacturing lead time and production time. The color code indicates the difficulty of the rebuilding effort.
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Causes for Optimism and Pessimism

Optimism – Most inventories are okay. These six systems do not represent the full spectrum of U.S. inventories. Most items provided to Ukraine have been in small numbers, or from areas that have large inventories or production capacities. For example, the United States has provided 108 million rounds of small arms ammunition, but U.S. production is about 8.6 billion rounds per year, so this transfer is easy to accommodate. The United States provided 300 M113 armored personnel carriers but has thousands available because the Army is moving to a different system.

Pessimism – Not enough data to assess. Replacement times for several important systems cannot be calculated because not enough data is publicly available. For example, DOD cites sending Ukraine over 46,000 “other anti-armor systems” (not Javelin but types not specified), over 50 counter-artillery radars (various kinds), laser-guided rocket systems, unmanned aerial systems, and unmanned coastal defense vessels. It might be that some of these systems have inventory challenges, but the data are insufficient to make a judgment.

What Does the Future Hold?

As the September commentary noted, low inventories do not mean the end of equipment transfers. They do mean that the United States will need to pursue other mechanisms. DOD has, indeed, been pursuing all these but will need to intensify its work as the flow of aid becomes a multi-year operation.

The bottom line is that military aid will continue, and Ukraine will still be able to resist, but inventory replenishment will become an increasingly pressing problem. DOD has many tools to mitigate the problem of “empty bins” and will need to use all of them to avoid a slackening of military support to Ukraine.

Quote:Department of the Navy Releases Strategic Blueprint for a Blue Arctic

Greater access is further opening new Arctic undersea fiber optic cable routes linking Europe, Asia, and North America. Nation-states and other actors are mounting cyberattacks on Arctic ship-building, energy, and shipping sectors–especially the researchn and development communities that underpin them.

The People’s Republic of China views the Arctic Region as a critical link in its One Belt One Road initiative.

The state of Maine which you rarely ever hear about will play an increasing strategic role:

Public-private partnerships and innovative solutions, such as NavalX tech bridges, leveraging relevant civilian expertise within the reserve components, and the Alaska Regional Collaboration for Technology Innovation and Commercialization (ARCTIC) led by the Office of Naval Research will help transform the operating abilities – and regional understanding – of naval forces. Maine has taken bold steps to advance their Arctic connection, including recent participation in The Arctic Circle Assembly and relationship with Eimskip, an Icelandic international shipping company, which has a regional hub in Portland.