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1936 all over again, with drones - DISRAELI - 04-14-2024

Anyone well-read in history will recognise the significance of the year 1936. Besides being the year when Hitler sent troops into the Rhineland (which was supposed to be free of them), it also saw the opening of the Spanish Civil War. The Spanish Civil war turned into a proxy battle between Fascism and Communism, in which Hitler and Stalin could try out their battle methods. It wasn't World War Two, but an important step in that direction.

Now we have two proxy wars going on, in the Ukraine and in Iran-Israel. (Future historians may see both Russia and Iran as proxies of China). Hitler had been able to practice the new techniques of air-warfare. Now everybody is learning about the effectiveness of drones. Both sides of the question, in fact. The Ukraine has taught us how damaging they can be. Israel has just taught us how they may be stopped.

Students of war will also recognise the name Dreadnaught. The original Dreadnaught was a state-of-the-art British battleship built at the end of the nineteenth century, which almost instantly made all the other battleships of the world obsolete. Including the rest of the British navy, which meant that a new and more expensive arms-race was starting from scratch. It seems to me that the deployment of drones has set off a new Dreadnaught era.


RE: 1936 all over again, with drones - 727Sky - 04-14-2024

If nothing else the cheap drones have many defense contractors trying to figure out how they can keep their insane military contract profit margins and bonuses for delays going. 

Some of the supposedly cheap USA supplied drones are unreliable and cost 10X more than the home made Ukraine or even the Chinese supplied drones.

I think it is great when an armed 500 dollar drone takes out equipment costing a few million to manufacture; warfare is changing before our very eyes and history is being made.

Current drones ( the small ones) need better range and batteries plus a way of not being jammed.. They are already working on drones that need no human in the loop as the drone can identify a target and attack all by itself. I assume the only thing the human has to do is say OK to the drone for the attack.


RE: 1936 all over again, with drones - DISRAELI - 04-14-2024

(04-14-2024, 01:17 PM)727Sky Wrote: If nothing else the cheap drones have many defense contractors trying to figure out how they can keep their insane military contract profit margins and bonuses for delays going. 

Some of the supposedly cheap USA supplied drones are unreliable and cost 10X more than the home made Ukraine or even the Chinese supplied drones.

I think it is great when an armed 500 dollar drone takes out equipment costing a few million to manufacture; warfare is changing before our very eyes and history is being made.

Current drones ( the small ones) need better range and batteries plus a way of not being jammed.. They are already working on drones that need no human in the loop as the drone can identify a target and attack all by itself. I assume the only thing the human has to do is say OK to the drone for the attack.

"A scrimmage in a Border Station— A canter down some dark defile—
Two thousand pounds of education drops to a ten-rupee jezail" (Kipling)


RE: 1936 all over again, with drones - EndtheMadnessNow - 04-15-2024

Our next 911 may be a drone attack of some sorts and/or an assassination hit on US soil in near future. Hope not, but the drone tech has really accelerated, now in heavy test trials as we've all been watching.

Pentagon eyes $1 billion over 2 years for Replicator mass drone fleet concept

“There was a debate which ... about so-called ‘reveal, conceal’ [and] how much detail we want to put out,” said Under Secretary of Defense Comptroller Mike McCord. "We're sort of leaning on the side of not disclosing the details..."

The stated goal of Replicator, which Hicks announced last year, is to deliver thousands of relatively low-cost, “attritable” autonomous systems across multiple domains in 18 to 24 months to help the Pentagon counter China’s military buildup.

Quote:Replicator is not a one-time project. As Ms Hicks explained, “[t]he ‘replication’ isn’t just about production. We also aim to replicate and inculcate how we will achieve that goal, so we can scale whatever is most efficient, effective and relevant in the future, again and again.”

To achieve its goal, Replicator “will help overcome the production valley of death” as described by two commentators as:

Sound[ing] like a place where vultures wheel in the hot desert air over the carcasses of the technologies that couldn’t make it across. It’s an apt metaphor, but the valley of death is not a place. It’s a condition.

The metaphor is applied to a wide range of products, including both incremental improvements and disruptive innovations, in many industrial and public settings. As a major developer and user of new technologies, DOD suffers greatly from the valley of death. In acquisition, the valley of death is often an unintended byproduct of an aging acquisition system that wasn’t built for the speed of modern innovation.

What it means, generally, when a program is lost in the valley of death is that the program was abandoned for at least one of four primary reasons: financial, technical, doctrinal or organizational culture.


The U.S. DoD Replicator Initiative and the Acquisition Process for Autonomous Weapons



RE: 1936 all over again, with drones - sailorsam - 04-15-2024

I suspect the USA has much better tech than what we're seeing in Ukraine and Israel.

Disraeli you are right.  Recently I read a book called 'Dark Valley' about the world leading up to WWII.  Imagine being around then and monitoring the news; Germany on the March, Japan expanding, Italy going into Ethiopia, etc.  seemed like every day something bad happened.  that's pretty much where we are now.

I worry about all the illegal aliens crossing the border; military age men of unknown origin but often from China and the Middle East.  I dread the thought of joint action.  maybe on the 4th of July, some date of significance.  Drone-borne IEDs for instance.

Quo Vadis...