I been thinking about the possibility of a real dark reemergence "Hidden-hand" conspiracy since mid 2020 and so my eyes went wide when I seen the following article:

Quote:The Ukraine crisis seems to be driven by an invisible hand pushing for the protraction and escalation of the conflict, according to China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang.

The “invisible hand” is “using the Ukraine crisis to serve certain geopolitical agendas”, Qin said at a press conference on the sidelines of the country’s annual parliamentary meeting in Beijing, without specifying who he was referring to.

He called for dialogue to begin as soon as possible.

“Conflict, sanctions, and pressure will not solve the problem … The process of peace talks should begin as soon as possible, and the legitimate security concerns of all parties should be respected,” Qin said.

China’s position on the Ukraine war has come under renewed scrutiny in recent weeks amid its deepening relationship with Moscow and concern in Western capitals that it cannot be an honest broker in any potential peace talks when it has refused to name Russia as the aggressor in the conflict.

Russia sent its troops into Ukraine on February 24 last year in what it calls a “special military operation”. The conflict has left Ukrainian cities in ruins, sent millions fleeing abroad and undermined the global economy.

Qin stressed that Beijing had not provided weapons to either side of the Ukraine conflict, amid comments from United States officials on unspecified “consequences” for China should it send lethal aid to Russia.

“[China] is not a party to the crisis and has not provided weapons to either side of the conflict. So on what basis is this talk of blame, sanctions and threats against China? This is absolutely unacceptable.”

In a wide-ranging and lengthy encounter with reporters, Qin also spoke about the US-China relationship, saying he hoped the two countries could find the “right way to get along”.

He stressed that the self-ruled island of Taiwan was central to the conduct of ties between Beijing and Washington, describing it as “the core of the core issues, and the first red line that must not be crossed in US-China relations”.

Beijing claims Taiwan as its own and has not ruled out the use of force to take control of the island. It has stepped up military and diplomatic pressure on the island since Tsai Ing-wen, who it claims is seeking independence, was first elected president in 2016. Tsai has said the future of the island is up to Taiwan’s people.

The US is bound by law to provide Taiwan with the means to defend itself.

https://twitter.com/unusual_whales/statu...0601015298







Let's send it to the Ukraine!






I wonder what the Lehman Brothers people are up to these days?

Oh.


SVB Securities



Reykjavik Grapevine



U.S. officials weigh protecting all deposits at Silicon Valley Bank



"It's As Bad As We Thought"

So ask yourself if you had a country where the Cartels control just about anything in your country why would you refuse help from a more technological powered country who wants to help ?

Many years ago a Marine friend of mine had said we kicked their butts once so he thought it would be wise to put the Marines on the border and have them move south until we can get a border we can defend; probably around the Panama Canal..

Many of my Mexican friends said America was the big brother they should listen to.. Once the ego is removed I would not be surprised if many Mexicans would be happy to see the Cartels destroyed... It would have been easier 20 years ago before the Cartels infiltrated just about all facets of Mexican life.
https://lists.youmaker.com/links/cCKQwQq...2JeBafY5tC

Quote:[/url]
Mexican President Threatens Republicans Calling for US Military to Target Drug Cartels
[url=https://img.theepochtimes.com/assets/uploads/2023/03/10/Andres-Manuel-Lopez-Obrador-GettyImages-1246387130-1200x802.jpg]
Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador gestures during a press conference in Mexico City on Jan. 20, 2023. (Alfredo Estrella/AFP via Getty Images)

By Joe Gomez
March 10, 2023Updated: March 11, 2023
biggersmaller
Print

0:004:16


Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has threatened to start a public “information campaign” in the United States against Republican lawmakers after several have called on the U.S. military to target drug cartels south of the border.
“I would just like to tell them either they change their treatment of Mexico or from today we will start an information campaign in the United States so that all Mexicans, our fellow countrymen, know about this aggression by Republicans against Mexico,” López Obrador said Thursday during a news conference.
In the wake of the kidnapping of four Americans and the killing of two of them in the border city of Matamoros, Mexico several Republicans in Congress have demanded the United States step up its fight against Mexican drug cartels, even if that means crossing the border to do it.
“The kidnapping and murder of American citizens in Matamoros prove that Mexico is a narco-state,” Rep. August Pfluger (R-Texas) told The Epoch Times. “President Biden must make it clear that this horrible violence will not go unpunished. If Mexico can’t stop the cartels, then our nation must use any tool in our arsenal to solve it for them.”
Pfluger’s call to action is also shared by Reps. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) and Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), who introduced legislation in January that would create the Authorization for Use of Military Force (AUMF) to target Mexican drug cartels in Mexico.
“The cartels are [at] war with us—poisoning more than 80,000 Americans with fentanyl every year, creating a crisis at our border, and turning Mexico into a failed narco-state,” Crenshaw said. “It’s time we directly target them. My legislation will put us at war with the cartels by authorizing the use of military force against the cartels. We cannot allow heavily armed and deadly cartels to destabilize Mexico and import people and drugs into the United States. We must start treating them like ISIS—because that is who they are.”
War of Words
During his news conference, López Obrador specifically called out Crenshaw who posted a video message in Spanish on Wednesday to the Mexican president, asking why López Obrador rejected his proposal for the U.S. military to take action against drug cartels in Mexico.
“Yesterday was the last straw. According to the report presented [to] me this morning, this man, [Crenshaw] dares to say that they are going to use the armed forces of the United States to enter our territory as in an invasion,” said López Obrador.
“We are not going to permit any foreign government to intervene in our territory much less that [foreign] governments armed forces intervene,” he said. “We could go to the U.N. “
As part of the ongoing war of words between Crenshaw and López Obrador, the congressman posted on Twitter “Bring it. Lol,” and told the Mexican president to “get a grip” and start campaigning against the drug cartels not “Americans who want to help eradicate them.”
Kidnapping and Murders
The Gulf cartel has taken responsibility for kidnapping and murdering the Americans in Tamaulipas, where the group has a large presence.
In a letter obtained by The Associated Press through a Tamaulipas state law enforcement official, the Scorpions faction of the Gulf cartel apologized to the residents of Matamoros, the Mexican woman who died in the cartel shootout, and the four Americans and their families.
“We have decided to turn over those who were directly involved and responsible in the events, who at all times acted under their own decision-making and lack of discipline,” the letter reads, adding that those individuals had gone against the cartel’s rules, which include “respecting the life and well-being of the innocent.”
Drug cartels have been known to issue communiques to intimidate rivals and authorities, but also at times like these work with public relations to try to smooth over situations that could affect their business.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.

The broadcast by 60 minutes Australia quotes some numbers that some may find surprising. I had no idea how many people every second clicked on a porn site..? It would appear there are those who keep pushing to make Porn acceptable to the majority and not something hidden behind some brown paper wrapper... Is this more proof there is a slide to decadence for a human society ?? The religious folks would probably think and say so. I have never been into porn as I seem to have always had a girlfriend/woman that kept me from lacking a sexually fulfilled life.... and in my younger days I was definitely a type "A" personality which means I was in conquest mode !! It helped being overseas for many years, as far as sexual gratification, since a guy could get laid for around $5 if they liked you and $7.50 if they didn't hahahha That was all before AIDS became a thing or just about any of the other "make you Pee Pee turn black and fall off" we hear about today.. Thank heavens !!

March 11, 1958: the Mars Bluff broken arrow occurred over Florence, South Carolina.






"Mars Bluff"? It's like some higher power has a cold sense of humor.

Read an interview with a witness by Cyriaque Lamar:

Quote:On the afternoon of March 11, 1958, Ella Hudson was nine years old and visiting her cousins' home in Mars Bluff, South Carolina. After an otherwise normal school day wrapped up, Ella had the bizarre pleasure of witnessing firsthand the United States Air Force accidentally drop a nuclear weapon — with its fissile material fortunately removed — on the woods near her cousins' house. Hudson spoke with io9 about that fateful day and how she thought the Cold War had heated up an hour outside of Myrtle Beach.

This happened in March. After school, I had gone to play at my cousin's house, the unfortunate location where this happened. It had been a really wet March. That was the reason everybody lived. When the bomb hit, instead of exploding — which it should have done the minute it hit the ground — it went down into the ground and exploded. We were basically protected from the all of the shrapnel. Nobody was killed, which was a miracle.
...
We were then all in the front of the house. We were running, and some guys had seen the mushroom cloud from the highway and gave us a ride to the hospital. I remember thinking, "We had been bombed by the Soviets, and the Americans were too stupid to let us know!"

Quote:Mars Bluff: Aftermath by Charles Glassmire

A SAC B-47 Stratojet bomber crew, on a simulated combat mission out of Hunter Air Force Base Georgia, accidentally dropped a 30-kiloton Mark 6 atomic weapon from its bomb bay. The date was March 11, 1958 over the peaceful town of Mars Bluff, South Carolina, when suddenly a tremendous explosion destroyed the home of railroad conductor Walter Gregg. As described in our last entry, family members were wounded and treated in hospital, and one 9 year old required surgery. The Gregg house was destroyed along with two of his automobiles and a small truck. Ironically, there was no radiation spread from the weapon detonation, since the Plutonium core of the bomb was not inserted. Thus the detonation was only from chemical explosive, but for months afterward the Air Force periodically checked the family and the surrounding land for radiation contamination – and found none.

When the B-47 crew returned to base and landed that day, they found a strange reception. The aircraft parking area was surrounded by Air Police with weapons pointed. The aircrew was required by regulations to carry loaded sidearms; they were immediately disarmed of these and then were taken to, and locked into, a room in the Operations Center of the base. It was suspected that espionage had taken place in a deliberate weapon release. The crew was forbidden to contact anyone, including their families, and was informed they were to remain locked in until further notice. Later that evening, no less a senior staff than General Curtis Lemay, then Vice Chief of Staff of the United States Air Force, telephoned and talked personally with the air crew. Satisfied the incident was purely accidental, he ordered their immediate release. They were charged to speak to no one about the event (and later they were all transferred to overseas assignments.)



Cub reporter Thom Anderson had ignored the advice of his preoccupied editors at the Florence Morning News to “check on it in the morning” and had arrived at the farm with a photographer. He diagnosed the event, including pictures, and the following morning the News headlined the story of an atomic bomb destroying the Gregg household. His paper contained four stories on the event, and carried much more coverage than the New York Times, which had to telephone Thom at the paper to try to get some details of the explosion for its New York edition. Thom also fielded inquiry’s from multiple foreign newspapers. He later was to become the Managing Editor of the News. Strangely, coverage of the story by the national press was to virtually vanish after three days, in stark contrast to the media hysteria typical of today’s nuclear coverage.

The Air Force announced they would make a fair settlement with the Greggs. They sent an officer who accessed the house Gregg had built with his own hands at a nominal value. They got no allowance for housing since they had moved in with their relatives. Their belongings were virtually destroyed in the wreckage, and were estimated at their depreciated value instead of their replacement cost. The officer insisted they provide a list of every item lost, together with its purchase date and original purchase price. The Air Force compensated them for a loss of between “6 to 14” chickens which roamed freely over the yard; lacking a body count, some of them were vaporized in the blast. Since Gregg’s vehicles were destroyed by the blast, the officer provided them a rental car for one week – claiming this was sufficient time to process their insurance claim and purchase another vehicle. Overall the Air Force offered them compensation of $44,000, for loss of property and personal injury.

The Greggs declined the offer and asked their congressman for permission to sue the Air Force. The request went to President Eisenhower, who signed his approval and allowed the lawsuit to proceed. Three years later they received $55,000, from which they had to pay their legal bills. The Greggs abandoned farming and moved into Florence- living there in a modest bungalow.

Immediately after the blast, the Air Force sent a special crew to control access to the site and search for any parts of the weapon which were spread over a wide area. After a week they turned over control back to the State Police and announced all bomb parts were the property of the United States government. A nephew of Walter Gregg, Clyde Gregg, allegedly found a piece of the weapon in a nearby field – he never admitted to the location of the piece, but rumor says it was offered for sale on eBay in 2005. Rumor also says Clyde turned down an offer of $6,000 and has stored the piece under a stuffed beaver in his home. It’s also noted the Florence Historical Society Museum contains several pieces on display for the curious to view and perhaps remember.

Now Days nobody talks much about the event in Mars Bluff. If one drives East out of Florence on U.S. 76 to the intersection of East Palmetto Street and University Road, there on the roadside one sees a historical marker titled “Atomic Bomb Accident at Mars Bluff…”.



Asking local teenagers for directions to the atomic bombing site evokes a puzzled stare. There were some directional signs to the “Atomic Bomb Crater Site” but most have been stolen by students from the local college. Walter Gregg was in his 90’s in 2012, and he’s reluctant to discuss the matter anymore. He says the aircrew flying the bomber have all written to the family with their deepest apologies for the event, and some have even visited and stayed over a few days to become good friends of the family.

The Air Force took some preventive measures after the fact. It is said a multimillion dollar upgrade to the nuclear arsenal explosives now surrounding nuclear weapons insures they no longer can detonate from impact, but require a special electrical signal. Flying procedures now require that the safety pin securing the weapons into the aircraft must remain in place throughout the flight until approaching the target area.

Perhaps the citizens of Mars Bluff will sleep a little more securely tonight…

Quote:What is EMP?

In the early 1960’s, after the Soviets abrogated a test moratorium,  the United States began  high altitude nuclear testing (one of which was code named Starfish Prime) to attempt to destroy any incoming ICBM’s. Some of these tests were unique for the detonation altitudes, being above 200 miles, and essentially triggering in space far above any existing atmosphere. The Starfish Prime test, surprisingly produced serious electrical blackouts in cities some 900 miles distant from the explosion. Luckily, in places like Hawaii, the rugged technology of the electric grid was rather ancient, thus subject to less damage, and was eventually repaired and restored to working order.

Scientists running the test were surprised by this consequence, and also noted many of their electrical test instruments were destroyed. The culprit was a large Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) from the burst. This effect had been predicted early on by Enrico Fermi at the 1945 Alamogordo test, but awareness of the effect seemed to fade over the years, mostly because few tests were at high enough altitude to initiate an EMP. Additional high altitude tests were, later on, to shed light on the mechanisms generating this seldom seen effect.



What causes this extremely damaging event? When a nuclear weapon is detonated at altitudes above the existing atmosphere, there is an immense burst of gamma radiation released at the moment of detonation.

Gamma rays are electromagnetic waves similar to radio waves or visible light radiation, but more energetic. After burst, this wave of radiation hits the upper atmosphere with a huge impact, and has energy sufficient to knock off electrons from the air molecules, thus causing charged electrons to separate from the now positive atoms. This effect is simple ionization, but with an enormous energy content.



Now a large wave of negative electrons begins to follow the magnetic field lines of the earth, moving over the Earth’s surface while spiraling around the lines of the Earth magnetic field. This action generates an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) of very high intensity, headed for the surface and expanding outwards in a rapidly broadening wave.

Ninety percent of the energy of this wave is contained in high frequencies, up to about 1 GigaHertz. This very short wavelength allows the pulse to couple easily with electrical systems, including computers, power supplies, semiconductors, alarm systems, banking computers and ATM circuits, intercom systems, life-support system controls, transistorized receivers and transmitters, power system controls, radio and communication links, microwave towers, long electrical lines used for power transmission, etc.

When this pulse hits one of the above, it arrives with a very sharp rise time of only a few nanoseconds! This arrival time is so short that there is not time for any safeguard circuitry to close before the pulse couples in. It is likely that this arriving pulse will destroy any surge suppressors, opening the way for later stages of the pulse to couple into the now unprotected circuitry. E.g. this means that your PC surge suppressor cannot close quickly enough to provide any protection to your computer from an EMP attack.

The EMP propagates towards the Earth’s surface in a radially spreading wave, acting along a line of sight from the burst. Therefore, the higher the burst the greater land mass will be impacted and damaged. “The greatest threat is from a high-altitude EMP detonated at 25 to 250 miles above the Earth’s surface… if even a small 1 megaton weapon was detonated at 250 miles above [Kansas for instance] the resultant pulse could disrupt, disable, and damage electronics across most, if not all, of the continental United States”.

But what about the backup generators? When electric power is lost, critical systems are often designed to automatically switch to local generators for their electric power. This will work as long as the generators are supplied with fuel, such as gasoline or diesel. However, these fuels ultimately must be supplied through the national network of supply trucks. These vehicles also deliver critical items such as food to the local supermarkets. The EMP will shut down most modern engines. They simply stop functioning. Older trucks, with sturdier ignition systems may continue to run but evidence is slim on this point. So – when the trucks stop the generators stop. And the food stops...

(To be continued…)

A monochrome YouTube video of the Starfish Prime event created by Joint Task Force Eight and DSWA, and some other shots in the Operation Fish Bowl series, is available.  Note the interesting color effects which appear near the end of the sequence: http://youtube.com/watch?v=KZoic9vg1fw

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With the modern tech being supplied to Ukraine I would not want to be a Russian flying anything.... or in a tank/APC ... Some day in a future war a Warlord shows up with his 10,000 droids/UAVs and decimates the human enemy.. We may not be that far from that scenario as the puzzle palace boys and girls have all eyes on what is working in Ukraine ? $100,000 Javelin missile (probably cost less than half that to manufacture) against a tank that cost several million ...no contest as tank and crew for the most part are destroyed if the Javelin can get a shot.

I think someone mentioned possibility of corporate sabotage among rivalries...found this piece from 2021:



CSX probes ‘security incident’ as hackers leak data

"20-year-old file transfer product" ?? What were they running it on? Windows 2000 & FTP protocol?

Aside from our hardware infrastructure (roads, bridges, power grids) degrading & collapsing much of our critical infrastructure still runs on ancient, deprecated software because the old adage, if ain't broke don't mess with it. And even when the software company does provide security fix updates prior to a hack to their clients it is common the customer takes there sweet ass time making the update(s) and more often than not it's not updated at all because the downtime required to apply the update is unacceptable. Sure, Bob I'll take care of it next week. However, sometimes the security updates have new flaws that go unchecked until Mr. Hacker finds a way in.

How To Cause Trains To DeRail 101

Step 1- Hack employee information
Step 2- Black mail said employees
Step 3- Derail trains

BTW, CSX chief competitor is... Norfolk Southern Railway.



CISA Advisory:

Quote:Exploitation of Accellion File Transfer Appliance

Last Revised June 17, 2021

Summary

This joint advisory is the result of a collaborative effort by the cybersecurity authorities of Australia,[1] New Zealand,[2] Singapore,[3] the United Kingdom,[4] and the United States.[5][6] These authorities are aware of cyber actors exploiting vulnerabilities in Accellion File Transfer Appliance (FTA).[7] This activity has impacted organizations globally, including those in Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

According to Accellion, this activity involves attackers leveraging four vulnerabilities to target FTA customers.[8] In one incident, an attack on an SLTT organization potentially included the breach of confidential organizational data. In some instances observed, the attacker has subsequently extorted money from victim organizations to prevent public release of information exfiltrated from the Accellion appliance.

Fairly technical video discussing the F-35 and the future 15 billion dollar upgrades envisioned by the MIC and the puzzle palace boys and girls.

Interesting story on all the power plays involved in the founding of DARPA... Like the title says a little history filled in for those who might be interested in how many of the departments/history we hear/think of today were formed. How the internet actually came together without Al Gore !! hahahah

...formerly the Worldwide Threats Brief is out...well the dumb down public version of it.

Summary excerpts from it:

Quote:ANNUAL THREAT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY

First, great powers, rising regional powers, as well as an evolving array of non-state actors, will vie for dominance in the global order, as well as compete to set the emerging conditions and the rules that will shape that order for decades to come.

Strategic competition between the United States and its allies, China, and Russia over what kind of world will emerge makes the next few years critical to determining who and what will shape the narrative perhaps most immediately in the context of Russia’s actions in Ukraine, which threaten to escalate into a broader conflict between Russia and the West. Second, shared global challenges, including climate change, and human and health security, are converging as the planet emerges from the COVID-19 pandemic and confronts economic issues spurred by both energy and food insecurity.

Rapidly emerging or evolving technologies continue to have the potential to disrupt traditional business and society with both positive and negative outcomes, while creating unprecedented vulnerabilities and attack surfaces, making it increasingly challenging to predict the impact of such challenges on the global landscape.
...
Iran will remain a regional menace with broader malign influence activities, and North Korea will expand its WMD capabilities while being a disruptive player on the regional and world stages.

WMD

China is reorienting its nuclear posture for strategic rivalry with the United States because its leaders have concluded that their current capabilities are insufficient. Beijing worries that bilateral tension, U.S. nuclear modernization, and the PLA’s advancing conventional capabilities have increased the likelihood of a U.S. first strike.

China is building hundreds of new ICBM silos.

SPACE

China is steadily progressing toward its goal of becoming a world-class space leader, with the intent to match or surpass the United States by 2045. Even by 2030, China probably will achieve world-class status in all but a few
space technology areas. China’s space activities are designed to advance its global standing and strengthen its attempts to erode U.S. influence across military, technological, economic, and diplomatic spheres.

TECHNOLOGY AND ECONOMICS

China is central to global supply chains in a range of technology sectors, including semiconductors, critical minerals, batteries, solar panels, and pharmaceuticals. In a speech in April 2020, Xi noted his intentions toincrease global supply chain dependencies on China, with an aim of controlling key supply chains and being able to use those supply chain dependencies to threaten and cut off foreign countries during a crisis. China’s dominance in these markets could pose a significant risk to U.S. and Western manufacturing and consumer sectors if the Government of China was able to adeptly leverage its dominance for political or economic gain.

Some other areas of concern are the battery, pharmaceutical, and solar panel manufacturing sectors. For example, PRC-based firms are on track to control 65 percent of the lithium-ion battery market by 2025, with the PRC dominant in all parts of the supply chain; China produces 40 percent of the world’s
active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs), the key ingredients in medicinal drugs; and China’s global share across all the manufacturing stages of solar panels now exceeds 80 percent and is set to rise to more than 95 percent during the coming years.

CYBER

China probably currently represents the broadest, most active, and persistent cyber espionage threat to U.S. Government and private-sector networks. China’s cyber pursuits and its industry’s export of related technologies
increase the threats of aggressive cyber operations against the U.S. homeland, suppression of the free flow of information in cyberspace—such as U.S. web content—that Beijing views as threatening to the CCP’s hold on
power, and the expansion of technology-driven authoritarianism globally.

MALIGN INFLUENCE OPERATIONS

Beijing will continue expanding its global intelligence and covert influence posture to better support the CCP’s political, economic, and security goals. China is attempting to sow doubts about U.S. leadership, undermine democracy, and extend Beijing’s influence, particularly in East Asia and the western Pacific, which Beijing views as its sphere of influence. Beijing largely concentrates its U.S.-focused influence efforts on shaping U.S. policy and the U.S. public’s perception of China in a positive direction, but has shown a willingness to meddle in select election races that involved perceived anti-China politicians.

PRC actors have become more aggressive with their influence campaigns, probably motivated by their view that anti-China sentiment in the United States is threatening their international image, access to markets, and
technological expertise. Beijing’s growing efforts to actively exploit perceived U.S. societal divisions using its online personas move it closer to Moscow’s playbook for influence operations.

Beijing is intensifying efforts to mold U.S. public discourse—particularly by trying to shape U.S. views of sensitive or core sovereignty issues, such as Taiwan, Xinjiang, Tibet, and Hong Kong—and pressure perceived political opponents.

China is rapidly expanding and improving its artificial intelligence (AI) and big data analytics capabilities, which could expand beyond domestic use.

(Russia) MALIGN INFLUENCE OPERATIONS

Russia presents one of the most serious foreign influence threats to the United States, because it uses its intelligence services, proxies, and wide-ranging influence tools to try to divide Western alliances and increase its sway around the world, while attempting to undermine U.S. global standing, sow discord inside the United States, and influence U.S. voters and decision making. Moscow probably will build on these approaches to try to undermine the United States as opportunities arise. Russia and its influence actors are adept at capitalizing on current events in the United States to push Moscow-friendly positions to Western audiences. Russian officials, including Putin himself, and influence actors routinely inject themselves into contentious U.S. issues, even if that causes the Kremlin to take a public stand on U.S. domestic political matters.

Russia’s influence actors have adapted their efforts to increasingly hide their hand, laundering their preferred messaging through a vast ecosystem of Russian proxy websites, individuals, and organizations that appear to be independent news sources. Moscow seeds original stories or amplifies
preexisting popular or divisive discourse using a network of state media, proxy, and social media influence actors and then intensifies that content to further penetrate the Western information environment. These activities can include disseminating false content and amplifying information perceived as beneficial to Russian influence efforts or conspiracy theories.

SPACE

Russia will remain a key space competitor, but it may have difficulty achieving its long-term space goals because of the effects of additional international sanctions and export controls following its invasion of Ukraine, a myriad of domestic space-sector problems, and increasingly strained competition for program resources within Russia.

Russia warned during a UN meeting in October 2022 that commercial infrastructure in outer space used for military purposes “can become a legitimate target for retaliation.”

Russia is investing in electronic warfare and directed energy weapons to counter Western on-orbit assets. These systems work by disrupting or disabling adversary C4ISR capabilities and by disrupting GPS, tactical and satellite communications, and radars. Russia also continues to develop ground-based ASAT missiles capable of destroying space targets in low Earth orbit.

IRAN

NUCLEAR ISSUES

Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that would be necessary to produce a testable nuclear device. Since the assassination in November 2020 of nuclear scientist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran has accelerated the expansion of its nuclear program, stated that it is no longer constrained by any JCPOA limits, and undertaken research and development activities that would bring it closer to producing the fissile material for completing a nuclear device following a decision to do so. If Tehran does not receive sanctions relief, Iranian officials probably will consider further enriching uranium up to 90 percent.

CYBER AND MALIGN INFLUENCE OPERATIONS

Iran’s growing expertise and willingness to conduct aggressive cyber operations make it a major threat to the security of U.S. and allied networks and data. Iran’s opportunistic approach to cyber attacks makes critical
infrastructure owners in the United States susceptible to being targeted by Tehran, particularly when Tehran believes that it must demonstrate it can push back against the United States in other domains. Recent attacks against Israeli targets show that Iran is more willing than before to target countries with stronger capabilities.

NORTH KOREA

WMD
Kim remains strongly committed to expanding the country’s nuclear weapons arsenal and maintaining nuclear weapons as a centerpiece of his national security structure. Public statements have reinforced North Korea’s intent
to enhance its ability to threaten both South Korea and the U.S. homeland.

North Korea probably is preparing to test a nuclear device to further its stated military modernization goals to facilitate “tactical nuclear operations.”

In September 2022, North Korea codified a law reaffirming its self-proclaimed status as a nuclear power, establishing open-ended conditions for nuclear
use, command and control, and rejecting denuclearization.

North Korea’s CBW capabilities remain a threat, and the IC is concerned that Pyongyang may use such weapons during a conflict or in an unconventional or clandestine attack.

CYBER

North Korea’s cyber program poses a sophisticated and agile espionage, cybercrime, and attack threat. Pyongyang’s cyber forces have matured and are fully capable of achieving a range of strategic objectives against
diverse targets, including a wider target set in the United States.

Pyongyang probably possesses the expertise to cause temporary, limited disruptions of some critical infrastructure networks and disrupt business networks in the United States.

In one heist in 2022, Pyongyang stole a record $625 million from a Singapore-based blockchain technology firm.

[Section on Climate Change and Environmental Degradation]


HEALTH SECURITY

Our Assessment of the Origins of COVID-19

The IC continues to investigate how SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, first infected humans, maintaining a Community of Interest across agencies. All agencies assess that two hypotheses are plausible explanations for the origin of COVID-19: natural exposure to an infected animal and a laboratory-associated incident.

Beijing continues to hinder the global investigation, resist sharing information, and blame other countries, including the United States.

BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS

Global shortcomings in preparedness for the COVID-19 pandemic and concerns with biosecurity, fabricated public claims about U.S. biological weapons development fueled by U.S. adversaries, as well as continued questions
surrounding the origins of the COVID-19 virus, may inspire some adversaries to consider options related to the development of biological weapons.

Rapid advances in dual-use technology, including bioinformatics, synthetic biology, nanotechnology, and genomic editing, could enable development of novel biological weapons that complicate detection, attribution, and treatment.

ANOMALOUS HEALTH INCIDENTS

We continue to closely examine Anomalous Health Incidents (AHIs) and ensure appropriate care for those affected. IC agencies assess with varying levels of confidence that most reported health incidents can be explained by medical conditions, or environmental or technical factors, and that it is unlikely that a foreign actor—including Russia—is conducting a sustained, worldwide campaign involving hundreds of incidents without detection. This finding does not change the fact that U.S. personnel are reporting real experiences, nor does it explain every report. The IC continues to actively investigate the AHI issue, focusing particularly on a subset of priority cases for which it has not ruled out any cause, including the possibility that one or more foreign actors were involved.

ADDITIONAL TRANSNATIONAL ISSUES

New technologies—particularly in the fields of AI and biotechnology—are being developed and are proliferating faster than companies and governments can shape norms, protect privacy, and prevent dangerous outcomes. The convergence of emerging technologies is likely to create potentially breakthrough technologies not foreseeable by examining narrow science and technology areas, which could lead to the rapid development of asymmetric threats to
U.S. interests.

Advances in semiconductors and high-performance computing are driving military and technological breakthroughs, but also are heightening the risk of technology surprise because high-performance computers will help address longstanding research and development hurdles.

China may now have two exascale systems using older generation, domestically designed processors—neither of which have been officially acknowledged or subject to independent benchmarks—and plans to build more by 2025. Exascale computers are capable of solving massive scientific challenges that would have been impossible with previous generation supercomputers.

As of June 2022, China had 173 of the world’s most powerful supercomputers, a third more than the United States, which accounted for 128 supercomputers.

MIGRATION

In the Western Hemisphere, push and pull factors that drive migrants from Latin America and the Caribbean to the United States—such as deteriorating socioeconomic and security conditions in certain countries, misperceptions of U.S. policies, and employment opportunities in the United States—probably will persist through 2023.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted the largest flow of refugees into European countries since World War II, with more than four million Ukrainians registering for protections under the EU Temporary Protection Directive—including more than one million in Poland.

Foreign Illicit Drugs

U.S. law enforcement is seizing increased quantities of fentanyl, and the majority of the more than 100,000 annual deaths from drug overdoses in the United States stem from fentanyl.

Mexican TCOs obtain the majority of precursor chemicals needed to produce fentanyl from China through mostly Chinese and Mexican chemical brokers and are able to circumvent international controls through mislabeled shipments and buying unregulated dual-use chemicals.

GLOBAL TERRORISM

U.S. persons and interests at home and abroad will face a persistent and increasingly diverse threat from terrorism during the next year. Individuals and cells adhering to ideologies espoused by ISIS, al-Qa‘ida, or the transnational Racially or Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremists (RMVE) movement pose a significant terrorist threat to U.S. persons, facilities, and interests. Iran and Lebanese Hizballah remain committed to conducting terrorist attacks and could seek to do so on U.S. soil.

Transnational Racially or Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremists

Transnational RMVEs continue to pose the most lethal threat to U.S. persons and interests, and a significant threat to a number of U.S. allies and partners through attacks and propaganda that espouses violence. Transnational RMVEs are largely a decentralized movement of adherents to an ideology that espouses the use of violence to advance white supremacy, neo-Nazism, and other exclusionary cultural-nationalist beliefs. These actors increasingly seek to sow social divisions, support fascist-style governments, and attack government institutions. The transnational and loose structure of RMVE organizations challenges local security services and creates a resilience against disruptions.

Transnational RMVEs capitalize on societal and political hyperpolarization to try to legitimatize their aims and mainstream their narratives and conspiracy theories into the public discourse. These RMVEs believe that recruiting military members will help them organize cells for attacks against minorities or institutions that oppose their ideology.

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